Economic growth averages 2.2% since Obama stimulus
There are the 4 major components to economic growth.
3) Workforce growth
4) Productivity increases.
We’ve hit peak oil, peak fish, peak iron. Workforce growth peaked at around 1970 in the US. Of these 4 components only productivity has been increasing during the last 30 years. This is why 6% to 12% economic growth hasn’t been seen in decades.
As a reminder in 1934 the economy grew 11%, 1935 9%, 1936 13.9%. as a result of spending 5-6% of GDP on infrastructure. Unemployment dropped from 23.5% to 9.9% by 1936. In todays 17 trillion dollar economy, that’s 850 billion, which would create 21 million jobs and increase Social Security revenues, ensuring SS is good thru 2090.
Hematite iron ore found in the US was depleted by 1973. Taconite iron ore is found much deeper, its harder and has to be broken up before moved to the blast furnace to make iron. Taconite mines are now 1 to 1.5 miles deep.
The up coming explosion in renewables can create an energy boom. Once Humans start using space based resources, we will have a resource boom. If we don’t tackle climate change, the upcoming extinction makes it all moot.
About the best we can expect is an average of 4% growth over the next decade. And that’s a lot better the 2.2% we’ve seen since 2010-2011. But Bernie proposed 1 trillion over 4 years, sorry folks that's not enough. Hillary proposed 1 trillion over 5 years...hello?
Large scale projects need time to get spooled up, so spending 400-500 billion in yr 1, 600-650 in yr 2, and 850 in yr 3 does make sense. Infrastructure spending on this scale will transform the labor market in a variety of ways. The skilled labor pool vanishes, and yes, employers will have to compete with each other to acquire the labor they require. What also happens is young able bodied males will move from jobs in retail & retail management, sales, PC and device support that pay 25k to 35k to jobs that pay 2 or 3 times that figure. The Atlantic Wind Connection will soon start construction, working offshore 10-20 miles from land generally starts at 85k to 100k. Installing solar PV pays 40k to 65k.
So as infrastructure projects spool up, millions of workers are attracted to the field, potentially 20 million. So what happens to the middle manager who is over 50 and lost their job and had to settle for less? Their experience will be in demand again. Those in retail will notice their able bodied male counterparts leaving the field. Within 4-8 years the entire US employment paradigm is altered, younger people who played by the rules, went to college and can't earn enough to pay back those college loans will find they are in demand.
Renewables can hire 1.1 million just in solar PV and wind installing current systems. Pumped hydro storage another 550k. Super Grid work will hire another 460k. These are conservative numbers and in no way represent an upper limit to what wan can do in scale and number of projects. Tidal , geothermal 100k-200k. When high speed internet, bridges tunnels, high speed rail, light rail and other traditional infrastructure jobs are counted up, at some point we may want to open up our borders to add to the labor pool.
If we don't do this, climate change can become an extinction event. The path of 2.2% GDP growth is the path to extinction. Remember that when the next President starts talking about job creation.