Crypto crashing again; It's just the leading edge of a bursting tech bubble
Stop me if you've heard this before - cryptocurrencies are crashing again today.
Actually don't stop me, because this is only part of a bigger story.
It's not just a case of bitcoin's price falling fast. We've seen that many times before, only to see bitcoin rebound in a few months. What we're seeing today is the various "infrastructures" that underpins the cryptocurrency world failing.
Celsius Network, a major U.S. cryptocurrency lending company, froze withdrawals and transfers citing "extreme" conditions.
Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, also temporarily paused bitcoin withdrawals today.
If this gets only modestly worse, then all of those cryptocurrency investors are going to be locked out of their accounts, unable to turn their paper profits into cash. What's scary is that you could potentially be one of those investors and not know it.
Celsius’s website tells customers they can “borrow like a billionaire”. It has $11.8bn in assets, down from more than $24bn in December last year. In November it said it had raised $750m from investors including Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, one of Canada’s largest pension funds.
And those paper profits are getting thinner each day. $200 billion has vanished from the cryptocurrency market since the start of the weekend.
With #Bitcoin dropping below key support at $25K and #Ethereum below 1300, the combined market cap of nearly 20K #cryptos has broken below $1 trillion, from a record-high of $3 trillion. That's $2 trillion down, $1 trillion left to go. The last trillion will be the most painful.
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) June 13, 2022
Cryptocurrencies are taking it on the chin the hardest because they make one of the weakest cases.
For instance, bitcoin is supposed to be a currency, but it acts like a speculative investment. A currency should have reasonably stable value, rather than swinging wildly. But that’s what Bitcoin does.
Cryptocurrencies investors will probably say "Who cares? Look how much it's gone up." But that's what a speculative investment does, like DotCom stocks in 1999, or housing in 2004. No one wants to accept a currency if it's likely to drop 50% before you can unload it, even if you are confident that it will bounce back in a couple months, because that's not what you do with a currency.
And if cryptocurrencies don't function well as a currency, then what exactly gives it value? What is it's purpose?
Robert Shiller, an economics professor at Yale who won a Nobel prize for his work on bubbles, said Bitcoin is “the best example right now” of a bubble. Compared to other investments, Bitcoin looks more like a get-rich-quick scheme than a long-term, stable investment.
Plus there is the high-transaction fees, slow transactions, limited number of places you can spend them, and the unusually high number of scams associated with crypto.
Speaking of crypto scams, consider this one, which makes investing in NFTs look sane in comparison.
Also in the midst of the crash, Ethereum co-founder and figurehead Vitalik Buterin published a paper summarizing his vision for Web3. It centers around un-transferable "soulbound" tokens attached to "souls" that act as an augmented reality layer on top of social life. It's safe to say that even with nearly every crypto coin in the red, things have only begun to get truly weird.
I'm going to stop bashing crypto now because crypto is just the most obvious element of a much larger bursting tech bubble. An examination of the cryptocurrency industry is that it is being propped up by VC investors with very deep-pockets, much like the rest of the tech bubble.
Tech stocks were down 26% as of Friday, so far this year.
My favorite example of this tech bubble is Uber. Unlike crypto, Uber's business model makes sense in theory. However, the fact that it continues to lose money hand-over-fist, quarter-after-quarter, year-after-year, and yet no one bats an eye, is proof to me just how insane it is.
In the fist quarter of 2022, Uber lost another $5.9 BILLION. Despite that Uber outperformed the NASDAQ that day anyway.
In the decade that Uber has been in existence, it has piled up around $30 BILLION in debt. That's greater than the GDP of nations like Iceland and Cambodia. Yet Uber appears to be no closer to making a profit than it did five years ago.
Uber is hardly an outlier in this regard. 'Zombie' companies tripled in number over the past decade, and 2021 was the peak year for investing in money-losing zombie companies.
The entry point for the discussion is as much about the massive influx of liquidity that private companies experienced in recent times as the sudden decline in liquidity taking place now. Many start-ups have a lot of money left on the balance sheet after mega rounds in the past year. In 2021, VC funding was $620 billion, which was more than double the previous year.
...“We stopped calling it a record year for venture capital in 2021 because it didn’t even do justice to what was going on,” said Kyle Stanford, senior VC analyst at PitchBook.
Of course 2022 is the year that inflation finally forced the Fed to raise interest rates, so it could be that insanely risky investing could turn into a return to reality on a dime.
Comments
Please excuse my simplistic thinking,
but sometimes simplistic is revealing.
I had an investment manager from a major bank describe a textbook pump and dump scheme and brag that his bank is so big that they routinely do it with entire markets. This is why their investors always outperform other banks'. Crypto sounds to me a lot like a recurring pump and dump. It also sounds a lot like a critical description of end stage capitalism - once you can't make any more money manufacturing you cut costs. But cutting costs raises costs (product liability, worker injuries, general inability to afford your goods, deferred maintenance raising repair costs, etc. etc.) so instead you underpay your raw materials suppliers. But then they have socialist or kleptocratic revolutions, so that doesn't work for long. At last you degenerate to running finance scams, making money for and from nothing.
On to Biden since 1973
It kept getting worse for crypto
wipeout
corresponding collapse in NFT prices
OT: Now that the markets are finally starting to come to terms with inflation and the fact that the Fed is going to have to dramatically raise interest rates, it appears that this is my once-a-decade time where I actually called the markets right. Which sounds pathetic, but if I can avoid losing money the rest of the decade, then this is still OK.
The fact is that the markets still haven't fully priced in the amount of inflation that we are going to get hit by. The same goes for the amount of interest rate hikes. Do what you will with that information.
$.02 worth of my simplistic thinking...
there
arewere a few whales (mega holders of bitcoins) that buy and sell with each other driving up the price enticing new money into the game. Once enough newbloodmoney enters the thunderdome, they then sell and swipe the gains off the top.Rinse and repeat.
Au Contraire
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"At last you degenerate to running finance scams, making money for and from nothing."
.
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I am pleased to report that I have not lost a real penny from my investment in the Barnum in the last month. So there. Of course I have not made a penny, real or fake, either. But that is beside the point.
If laughter is the best medicine, crypto cash will keep me healthy for decades to come.
I cried when I wrote this song. Sue me if I play too long.
To continue my ignorance
by setting the value of the barnum to an unchangable amount the only change would come from a change in the "value" of the dollar - you're not saying x barnums = $1, you're saying x dollars = 1 barnum. Since the barnums doesn't change the only thing that can is the value of the dollar. This is what a simpleton thinks of the gold standard. (though you can mine more gold if you want the rich to horde more gold without diluting the dollar hint: this doesn't work beyond a point, think the Italian Lire or the Weimer Mark)
Question: if we were still on the gold standard what would the dollar be worth after for example the Fed issuing trillions of dollars to prop up capitalism, $0.004?
On to Biden since 1973
Not sure if we are communicating
.
I made up that tale of the Barnum as a joke, making fun of the Crypto Phenomenon as another example of the adage, "There's a sucker born every minute."
My apology if I misunderstood your post.
I cried when I wrote this song. Sue me if I play too long.
Dag, people sounds like you
all fell for some dicey money scams. Not an stock market or any market investor myself. Course I'm a if you can't eat it what good is it type. We are a self propitiatory business. Been so since the 90's when we got sick of working for large corporations that used our skills for being the guys in the back room will whip it out and yet refused to pay decently. Husband is a math genus and a musician. I'm a good graphic artist and worked in retail marketing/advertising.
No security? lol. No 401k.and yet here we are alive and well. Lived a life time of scams to make money on the dicey side. No thanks. Take your cypto bs. and shove it where the sun doesn't shine. Perhaps people should reject the so called 'market' and live on what they make. Realize that isn't possible if you have a pension plan or work for the man. Why invest in such an obvious scam on your own? This country needs regulation reinstalled. Trust busting would help also. What we have now is 'disaster capitalism' riun amok. A pox on all politicians, including so called Dem. progressives for not even doing the basic reform. Like 60 votes due to a procedural rule which they refuse to contest. A nightmare where scammers get to roam free with their bitcoin or what ever.
Funny; Uber's business model NEVER made sense to me
People are providing THEIR OWN cars to serve as freelance taxis; I've never understood what Uber is providing (especially what could possibly be making its EVIL effects on its own employees seem worth it - you're providing your own goddamn car, why not just be a freelance cabbie???).
In the Land of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is declared mentally ill for describing colors.
Yes Virginia, there is a Global Banking Conspiracy!
To paraphrase Carlin,
it's a big club, and none of us are ever going to be in it.
Twice bitten, permanently shy.
"the deepest, darkest phase"
bloomberg link
If a person spent
what passes for real cash money to purchase a trendy wraith that provided temporary paper gains, well golly- the trend has passed. Sorry. Only the people at the top of that pyramid were ever going to see a real "gain", and only as long as they got the hell out once they'd finished fleecing the unwary.
How many more attractive Ponzi schemes will the various invisible hands lay out in the sunshine to entrap the credulous? They're essentially legal now, and they are everywhere...
Look! There's a turkey leg on a paper plate, right there on the sidewalk! Let's go eat it: what could possibly go wrong?
Twice bitten, permanently shy.
speculate this
gangsta's doing mob handling
cleaning filthy money
screw the little guys
eat scams with a capitalist sauce
that's the way you do it ..
money for nothing on money tv
question everything
Yeah, mon!
Or, as The Members would say it:
[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFnXM0ku4hE width:400 height:300]
Nothing like a little early-80s white-boy-reggae to bring the day to a close.
Twice bitten, permanently shy.