Crosspost from TOP re: delegate "math"

Probably not going to change hearts and minds, but I had to go there.

The last math diary you'll ever need
by TheLadyBrienne

numbers.jpg

Poor, dear old math. What did it ever do to deserve to have its name dragged through the mud in this shameful manner?

None of these “math” diaries are really about math. Mostly they are collections of projections by people who are absolutely sure that their special crystal ball (or the special crystal ball used by their favorite pundit) is the only one that could possibly be showing an accurate picture of future events.

If we’re honest with ourselves, we don’t call that math. We call it what it is: guessing.

We run into trouble here when everyone thinks their guess is the only “educated” guess and therefore the only one worthy of consideration. But let’s put the emphasis where it belongs — on the noun, not the adjective.

To be clear, I think it’s OK to be confident in a guess, as long as we don’t confuse our guess with reality. That means that we can think what we want, and act (or not) accordingly; but telling the world that anyone who doesn’t believe our favorite prediction is stupid, delusional, naive, brainwashed, corrupt, or even mentally ill, is both irrational and condescending.

It also causes protracted, pointless, destructive, bad-blood-inducing infighting.

Look, I know we all want to know what happens in the primaries, so that we can do our victory dances and/or drown our sorrows. Me too! I don’t mind telling you I can’t wait to use my math.

Just hang in there. That day is coming soon. Won’t it be great when we finally have all the primary voting results? Then we can use our beautiful, precise, glorious, logical math to add them all up and get the result we want: a real, calculable, incontrogoddamnvertible final answer!

I know it’s hard to wait, but until all the people have voted, there is no final answer. Only guessing.

So here’s my proposal: Let’s agree that if we get the urge to argue about what we guess is going to happen, we will stop ourselves and go do something else. Anything else. Some suggestions: Phonebank for our chosen candidate. Knock on doors to get out the vote. Bake a few dozen cookies. Practice our swordsmanship. Knit a pair of socks. Play Scrabble with friends, using wooden tiles on a tabletop board. Build a birdhouse. Clean out the garage. Watch some cute baby animal videos.

Seriously, literally anything is more productive than arguing over whose guess is more educated.

Anything.

Love, Brienne

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Tyrion's_Red_Coat's picture

here's the link: http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/3/20/1503942/-The-last-math-diary-y...

ETA: nevermind ... see downthread Smile

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When you tear out a man's tongue, you are not proving him a liar; you are only telling the world that you fear what he might say.

Went back for tip and rec for yours. Even the BNR I skim now and hurry away. Glad to have link to LP's site directly, for more careful reading, provided by Miss SPED yesterday (thanks again): bernienewsroundup.com. Had made a point of using LP's ActBlue jar for donations. That, too, may stop.

Feels much healthier, even for those who plan to remain part of the dkos family, to limit references to that place here. Once newcomers have landed here safely and had time to "get it all out" about their reasons for leaving, if they feel that need, we can all participate in the process of seeing how this nonjudgmental site grows.

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"It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society." --Jiddu Krishnamurti

We aren't interested in contributing to its revenue with our clicks and content. I agree with your essay. You are free to ask for support for it at TOP. I'm sure there are others that rec it at TOP.

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"Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

HATE that layout, along with all the nastiness and stupidity, of course.

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We have had too many people re-posting stuff from the other place and trying to get us to follow a link and recommend them.

If you had spent any time here, I believe you would discover our math works just fine. Your post belongs at the other place.

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'Well, I've wrestled with reality for thirty five years, Doctor, and I’m happy to state I finally won out over it." Elwood P. Dowd "

I thumbs upped your essay. Agree. But the longer I am out, the more resolve I have to Not. Go. Back.
There is a roster of people here I support unequivocably, I will no longer go back there to recommend them either.
The place and their candidate represent most of what I despise and totally reject about politics.

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Tyrion's_Red_Coat's picture

Upon reflection I agree and will make future posts purely as content for this site.

I'll label crossposts at the bottom if they've in fact been crossposted, but will not request nor expect folks to engage in any way at TOP.

I like it here!

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When you tear out a man's tongue, you are not proving him a liar; you are only telling the world that you fear what he might say.

I would just as soon join Redstate.

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Twain Disciple

I think political people who talk constantly about "math" probably flunked math class. Delegate counts are arithmetic, with some smoke and mirrors thrown in. Bernie is going for super-delegates now, and why not? That's the system in the Democratic Party. If the super-delegate count was switched, Bernie would be the "inevitable" candidate!

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"We've done the impossible, and that makes us mighty."