Bitcoin: We've never seen a bubble like this

A simple chart of bitcoin price doesn't do this bubble justice.
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To fully grasp this bubble you must put it into a context.

However, most the coverage has missed out one of the more interesting and unintended consequences of this price increase. That is the surge in global electricity consumption used to “mine” more Bitcoins.
According to Digiconomist’s Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index, as of Monday November 20th, 2017 Bitcoin’s current estimated annual electricity consumption stands at 29.05TWh.
That’s the equivalent of 0.13% of total global electricity consumption. While that may not sound like a lot, it means Bitcoin mining is now using more electricity than 159 individual countries (as you can see from the map above). More than Ireland or Nigeria.
If Bitcoin miners were a country they’d rank 61st in the world in terms of electricity consumption.

bitcoin-mining-vs-world.png
Or maybe or historical comparison is a better context.

Ultimately, the best way to measure a bubble is the mania of the people buying the bubble.

Pole dancing instructor Dee Heath is riding the surge with her fitness business in western Sydney.
She has spent $5,800 on Bitcoin since July and has more than tripled her investment.
"Look, I love pole dancing but lately my passion has definitely been Bitcoin," she told SBS News.

Or maybe this is a better sign of a bubble.

With bitcoin setting record highs almost daily, what can someone actually buy with bitcoin? The answer - not much.
Starbucks won't sell you coffee for bitcoin. Amazon.com doesn't accept it either. Options to use digital currency on Black Friday or CyberMonday are surprisingly limited.
So where can newly minted digital currency millionaires enjoy the profits of the historic bitcoin bull market? In Las Vegas, of course.
The Legends Room in Las Vegas is nightlife reimagined. In addition to traditional forms of payments, the new night club accepts bitcoin, ethereum, and most other digital currencies for drinks, bottle service, and musical performances from celebrity DJs like Brody Jenner and Samantha Ronson.
The Legends Room even issued its own coin, LGD, that trades on the Bittrex exchange. The LGD coin can be used in the club for VIP seating, priority admission to performances, exotic car rentals, and discounts on all club services and merchandise.

Nightclubs issuing their own coins give you an idea of what is happening here.

There are now 12 coins with a market cap of greater than $1 billion and fully 69 cryptos with a market cap of over $100 million. The CoinMarketCap website now lists 1,022 coins that are publicly-trading, and hundreds more where it doesn't have enough data to calculate a market cap yet.
Hilariously enough, this dilution of the whole field has led to a situation where coins based on memes or internet jokes end up being worth more than many other rivals.
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These hacks of cryptocurrencies are just about as old as cryptocurrencies themselves. In June, 2011, a user named ALLINVAIN made off with 25,000 bitcoins, at the time valued at $775,000, today valued at $200 million. It went on from there.

The biggest hack remains Mt. Gox, which at the time was handling 70% of the global bitcoin transactions. The exchange, located in Tokyo, revealed the hack in February 2014. Apparently 650,000 bitcoins ($473 million at the time) had disappeared over a period of several years. At today’s prices, the hack would have amounted to $5.2 billion.

Here are some of the major cryptocurrency hacks:

August 2017, Enigma ICO (Initial Coin Offering) was hacked, 1,500 Ether ($500,000) stolen. Store of Value writes:

The hacker was able to break into Enigma’s website, Slack group, and mailing list and sent fraudulent messages to the project’s community asking for money. This allowed the hacker to gather almost 1,500 Ether (about $500,000). This is despite a previous warning by Enigma that it would not collect money in this way until its ICO in September.

July 2017, Veritaseum’s Ether wallet hacked, about $8 million stolen after its ICO on May 26th. Store of Value:

[O]n July 23rd, Middleton [founder Reggie Middleton of the Boom Bust Blog] claimed in Veritaseum’s Slack group that hackers stole 36,000 VERI tokens out of a wallet held by the company. This is how Middleton described the hack: “The hackers thwarted 2FA, on two different accounts, and finagled 3rd parties security among several other things. They went through quite a bit of effort, alas going through that much effort caused them to leave a bread crumb trail as well. I hate thieves.”

July 2017, Parity Multisig Wallet was hacked, according to ParityTech. “A vulnerability in the Parity Wallet library contract of the standard multi-sig contract has been found,” the company said. Via this vulnerability, hackers drained 153,037 Ether ($32 million) from three multi-signature contracts that were used to store funds from prior ICOs (Swarm City, Edgeless Casino, and æternity).

July 2017, Bithumb, the world’s fourth largest Bitcoin exchange and largest Ether exchange, was hacked, according to Hacker News. Claims “started to surface” that “billions of won” disappeared from compromised accounts at the Korean exchange. At the time, actual loss data remained unclear.

This list is much longer (see the link).

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@gjohnsit
but supposedly offline hardware wallets are safe, as long as no one has your credentials to access it. From what I've read storing your "coins" on an exchange is just asking for it.

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EdMass's picture

Cryto money

Who pays me when it goes wrong.

If its trading at $5k plus per share, I can buy at $10 on fractional share?

If its too complicated for you to explain, I'm not buying

This is how we overcome?

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Prof: Nancy! I’m going to Greece!
Nancy: And swim the English Channel?
Prof: No. No. To ancient Greece where burning Sapho stood beside the wine dark sea. Wa de do da! Nancy, I’ve invented a time machine!

Firesign Theater

Stop the War!

@EdMass
It all depends on someone willing to pay more.

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@gjohnsit
cash out until a willing buyer is found.

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@JtC
It's a commodity.

Bitcoin/crypto will be one of the first bubbles to burst because it's a bubble of poor people.
Bonds is the bubble of the rich.

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@gjohnsit
and every one wants to sell and there's nobody to buy, the first few traders will be the winners and everyone else will be left to hold the bag. No FDIC in the bitcoin game.

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thanatokephaloides's picture

@gjohnsit

Then it's not a currency It's a commodity.

All currencies are commodities. Consider the ForEx exchanges.

Bitcoin/crypto will be one of the first bubbles to burst because it's a bubble of poor people.
Bonds is the bubble of the rich.

So is ForEx. (the bubble of the rich)

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

@thanatokephaloides

All currencies are commodities.

You don't have to "sell" a $20 bill. You exchange it for a commodity.

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Meteor Man's picture

@gjohnsit

Buy before it's too late! Buy! Buy! Buy!

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/BitPenny

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"They'll say we're disturbing the peace, but there is no peace. What really bothers them is that we are disturbing the war." Howard Zinn

divineorder's picture

@JtC

Smile

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A truth of the nuclear age/climate change: we can no longer have endless war and survive on this planet. Oh sh*t.

EdMass's picture

@divineorder

You mad investor, you.

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Prof: Nancy! I’m going to Greece!
Nancy: And swim the English Channel?
Prof: No. No. To ancient Greece where burning Sapho stood beside the wine dark sea. Wa de do da! Nancy, I’ve invented a time machine!

Firesign Theater

Stop the War!

@EdMass
I don't own any bitcoin or cryptos. I will admit that I wish I had bought some a few years ago when they were mucho cheapo.

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@divineorder
I thought about it but it was just a fleeting thought. I still may do it anyway.

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thanatokephaloides's picture

@JtC

Nope... I thought about it but it was just a fleeting thought. I still may do it anyway.

Amice respettissimo, I wouldn't if I were you!

This is a bag you really don't want to end up holding!

Smile

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

thanatokephaloides's picture

@divineorder

Does C99 accept bit coin donations?

Not that I know of. JtC needs real money to keep c99 going, not the ephemeral mirages Bitcoins are.

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

thanatokephaloides's picture

@EdMass

I don't understand this
Crypto money
Who pays me when it goes wrong.

No one. Your market powers are no better than the value of your "coins" at minimum.

If its trading at $5k plus per share, I can buy at $10 on fractional share?
If its too complicated for you to explain, I'm not buying
This is how we overcome?

No. And sane humans avoid cryptos like death.

One aspect of all extant crypto-currencies is artificial scarcity, which is one reason why Bitcoin is so deflated right now. But this is just like a sadistic game of musical chairs: once the currency deflates to the point where trading stops, it suddenly loses all its value at once, as the only value a crypto ever has is what it can command by trade. At the time the collapse occurs, anyone holding coins is, frankly, fucked.

Thus, again, no sane human plays in this particular playground!

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

The Aspie Corner's picture

Eventually their 'currency' will implode on them just like gold did not so long ago.

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Modern education is little more than toeing the line for the capitalist pigs.

Guerrilla Liberalism won't liberate the US or the world from the iron fist of capital.

@The Aspie Corner
It's still worth about $1,300 an ounce, and very stable.

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@gjohnsit
$1,200-$1,300 seems to be the gradient. When it gets up to around $1,300 or so, the monkeyhammer comes out. Without the manipulation gold would be a lot higher, IMO.

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mimi's picture

and had never the intention to try to figure it out. What do you need bitcoins for? Where can I pay something with a bitcoin? What is an off-line hardware wallet? My wallet with my paper money in my purse? And I can't cash it out? Which brick and mortar bank sells me bitcoins? Why would I bother to have bitcoins?

The list of hacks into those crypto money trading sites is ridiculous.

What is there not to boycott on the internet?
Amazon.com, google.com, facebook.com, twitter.com, crypto money traders?

I am glad I don't understand what crypto money is. Never missed it.

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divineorder's picture

used.

Wonder how much is coal - powered?

Another solar opportunity?

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A truth of the nuclear age/climate change: we can no longer have endless war and survive on this planet. Oh sh*t.

@divineorder
use your CPU to mine with when you visit them. If you visit a site and hear your fan take off and notice a big spike in CPU usage, then that site may be mining. There is a NoScript filter that blocks the mining script from running.

Stealing CPU is also a thing. Some folks have been fired from their jobs for using their work computers to mine with.

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mimi's picture

@JtC

If you visit a site and hear your fan take off and notice a big spike in CPU usage, then that site may be mining.

I hear this fan taking off often, when I happen to fall asleep over my laptop and didn't shut down my computer. I always wondered what is happening when I heard my laptop "wake up" out of nowhere without me doing anything.

As I think it's impossible for me to understand the whole shebang, I tend to start to not care about it. Is that a mistake I make? Do I really have to make an effort to "understand" it?

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Citizen Of Earth's picture

@mimi
which has been transformed into an advertising delivery mechanism.

Windows is constantly using your bandwidth and CPU to transfer ads and mine your harddrive to share your personal secrets with Microsoft marketing partners. That shiny, arcade-like Windows Start Menu comes at a cost.

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Donnie The #ShitHole Douchebag. Fake Friend to the Working Class. Real Asshole.

thanatokephaloides's picture

@Citizen Of Earth

It's Probably Windows OS which has been transformed into an advertising delivery mechanism.

Windows is constantly using your bandwidth and CPU to transfer ads and mine your harddrive to share your personal secrets with Microsoft marketing partners. That shiny, arcade-like Windows Start Menu comes at a cost.

Yet another reason to liberate your computer and Upgrade from Windows!

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

mimi's picture

@thanatokephaloides
Linux fans and used it myself. I don't know what happened anymore, somehow the cute penguin vanished from my desk and I had to use the stuff my employer used. Wink

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@mimi
Linux used to be hard.
It's super easy now.

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@Citizen Of Earth

Thanks for the info! Now that you mention it, my fan hasn't been going off all of the time since switching to Linux. Still a lousy connection here and too-often go through sometimes whole days where I can only play music videos a little at a time with frequent disconnects and long waits for not just C-99 but even the Solitaire game I also keep up for these times, despite having what's supposed to be high-speed internet.

But it's wireless and when the almost continual difference between what shows as being available and what I get for power has, on several recent occasions, shown as my briefly getting more than is said to be available, I begin to suspect that some sort of Stingray device may be snagging my computer. (Apparently, they fool your cell phone - although I don't have one - and also computers into thinking they're a tower.) If so, any poor bugger keeping track of me must be getting bored silly... although there must be a lot of older ladies out there commenting on political sites for their non-amusement so I'd expect that they must be used to that.

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Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.

A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.

thanatokephaloides's picture

@mimi

I hear this fan taking off often, when I happen to fall asleep over my laptop and didn't shut down my computer.

With laptops, there may be nothing nefarious happening at all. Laptop CPUs are designed for speed and small size. Heat dispersal plays a distant third. So laptop designers' answer is almost always large heat sinks and fans.

And if you fall asleep over your laptop, you're probably blocking one or more of the laptop's air vents, making the situation worse.

So no need to panic yet....

Wink

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

Hawkfish's picture

There are a finite number of valid bitcoins, so the last people in are left holding the bag. And they will be holding the bag because the finite number makes it deflationary, hence useless for any real economy outside of an Ayn Rand novel.

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We can’t save the world by playing by the rules, because the rules have to be changed.
- Greta Thunberg

Lookout's picture

I'm thinking the petro yuan is starting in Jan.? Russia, China, and other countries are investing in bitcoin (and gold). If the US$ tanks, I would think bitcoin will look pretty good.

Although some governments (like ours) would like to take down bitcoin, it is like taking down the internet...difficult. So instead they just arrest leading proponents. Max Keiser better watch out! (BTW he bought in at $300, and it hit $9000 this morning)

Interesting in investing? Here's a reputable site.
https://www.coinbase.com/

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

@Lookout
If that looks stable to you then please see a doctor.

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Lookout's picture

@gjohnsit

Perhaps reliable or dependable? I'm unsure of the speed of quantitative easing over the last decade or so, but we've pumped a lot of dollars into the system. If the petro dollar collapses (as I suspect), I can see how having bitcoin as a precaution is pretty smart.

I must admit I much prefer being land rich and money poor. At least I have something real. I'm not a stock market nor bitcoin player, but I think I trust the future of bitcoin as much as the dollar? So from my end it is all speculation so to speak.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

thanatokephaloides's picture

@Lookout

How is bitcoin less stable than the US$?

It boils down to the fact that no one is in charge of the issuance of Bitcoins. The "mining" rules are fixed and immutable. So there's no possibility of adjustment when problems (like the current runaway deflation) occurs.

The non-crypto currencies are issued by central banks which are operated by natural, biological human beings. Stability of value within reasonable parameters is a necessity for such currencies (see the Zimbabwean Dollar for what happens when this is neglected). Adjustments are therefore possible, and undertaken as needed.

So most non-crypto currencies end up being much more stable than the cryptos are.

And gjohnsit is right: if that Bitcoin graph looks like stability to you, you need to visit an ophthalmologist subito!!

Wink

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

TheOtherMaven's picture

@thanatokephaloides

Is it going to reach the same stratospheric heights and have the same abrupt fall? Stay tuned (but don't risk anything you can't afford to lose!)

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

thanatokephaloides's picture

@TheOtherMaven

Bitcoin seems to be tracking Tulip Mania *very* closely
Is it going to reach the same stratospheric heights and have the same abrupt fall?

It would appear so; and the mechanisms at work are also quite similar.

Tulip bulbs' price crashed when the mania went away and people stopped trading at the inflated prices.

The same thing will happen with Bitcoin. Once the deflation gets so bad that trading stops, Bitcoins will lose all of their value at once. And unlike tulip bulbs, Bitcoins won't recover, having no physical existence of their own.

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

TheOtherMaven's picture

@thanatokephaloides

They claim, "Yes, there was a spike in tulip bulb prices, but it wasn't that bad, and only a few members of the middle class played and paid". Unfortunately the available data are rather sparse, and thus capable of more than one interpretation. Much of the debunking comes from economists who believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis - itself capable of being debunked.

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

Shure rougt on that un!

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