Bernie's Still Right - The Economy Stinks For Most Americans

Oh, it is a wonderful economy if you are in the top one percent. It's not even all that terrible if you are in the upper 20% (though it isn't great, either). But when you look at people in the lower 80 percent of the income range, there is no cherry on top of their sundae from this so-called economic recovery.

We've seen the statistics that show the mortality rate for non-Hispanic, middle-aged white Americans is now increaseing for the first time in decades. And this decrease in life expectancy has affected poor, less-educated white women the hardest.

And while the reasons postulated for this reversal in life expectancy among the group that has generally fared the best in the past are as numerous as there are pundits on cable TV shows to pontificate on it, let me suggest that one particular factor may play a significant role. Guess which one. Yes, that's correct. It's the economy stupid. Particularly the economy that has done little for those who are not among the upper strata of wealth and income in our great land of the free, and home of the brave.

In the ten years between 2004 and 2014, median income (i.e., the level of income that splits the top half from the bottom half) fell 13 percent. What's worse, is that household expenditures increased by roughly 14 percent. Indeed, since 1996, "[t]he typical household saw its expenditures grow by more than 25 percent, from $29,400 in 1996 to $36,800 in 2014," (after adjusting for inflation) with the majority of that increase coming from spending on basic necessities such as food, housing, transportation and health care. Here is a nice chart from the recent PEW issue brief, "Household Expenditures and Income," that shows the growing disparity between what poor and middle class Americans pay for basic necessities versus their ever declining incomes.

As you can see quite clearly, income for most people continues to trend downward, while expenses for the typical family have risen even more sharply, despite the much heralded economic recovery proclaimed by President Obama and the media in January. In truth, this issue is the one that that establishment politicians and the media have done their best to avoid discussing whenever possible: that for many, many people around the country the recession never ended. Arguably, for most of them it has gotten worse. Take a look at this graphic of data compiled by PEW study that shows how much more typical household costs eat into a family's income in 2014 compared to 1996.

Even after adjusting for inflation, it's clear that increases in the cost of housing, food and health care have placed a significant financial burden on middle class and poor families following two decades of the neo-liberal economic policies that have been promoted and adopted by both Republican and Democratic administrations, beginning with President Bill Clinton. Is it any wonder that a neo-fascist clown such as Donald Trump is well ahead in the Republican Presidential race. Though he rabidly pushes racism and appeals to bigotry, he is also the only Republican candidate who loudly proclaims that trade deals such as NAFTA have harmed the working class.

In many speeches he makes a point of declaring that he will raise high tariffs on goods imported by companies that shut down manufacturing plants in America and shipped jobs overseas. Other than Sanders, no other major candidate in either party is pushing this populist theme as hard, one which appeals to many of the very people who have suffered the most over the last twenty years as they've watched any financial security they might have once have enjoyed wither into nothingness.

Most of the data in the latest [Federal reserve] survey, frankly, are less than earth-shattering: 49 percent of part-time workers would prefer to work more hours at their current wage; 29 percent of Americans expect to earn a higher income in the coming year; 43 percent of homeowners who have owned their home for at least a year believe its value has increased. But the answer to one question was astonishing. The Fed asked respondents how they would pay for a $400 emergency. The answer: 47 percent of respondents said that either they would cover the expense by borrowing or selling something, or they would not be able to come up with the $400 at all.

Yet, it seems the establishments of both major parties have no real incentive to change their current views on trade or the economy, as the vast majority of the funds that fuel their campaigns come from contributions bundled by industry lobbyists, or in unlimited amounts of cash contributed directly by multinational companies and billionaires to Super Pacs that favor incumbents at every level of government who vote to maintain the status quo. Just as supposedly only Nixon could thaw relations with Russia and China at the height of the Cold War, we now see Democratic administrations successfully work to push through trade deals favorable to large corporations at the expense of our own workers and the environment.

Perhaps surprisingly, or perhaps not, economists have done little research on the issue of financial insecurity that so many of us deal with on a daily basis. As one economist recently said, it's a "new area of research" for many of them.

David Johnson, an economist who studies income and wealth inequality at the University of Michigan, says, “People studied savings and debt. But this concept that people aren’t making ends meet or the idea that if there was a shock, they wouldn’t have the money to pay, that’s definitely a new area of research”—one that’s taken off since the Great Recession. According to Johnson, economists have long theorized that people smooth their consumption over their lifetime, offsetting bad years with good ones—borrowing in the bad, saving in the good. But recent research indicates that when people get some money—a bonus, a tax refund, a small inheritance—they are, in fact, more likely to spend it than to save it. “It could be,” Johnson says, “that people don’t have the money” to save. Many of us, it turns out, are living in a more or less continual state of financial peril.

Sanders and Trump have made opposition to unfair trade agreements a major part of their economic platform. Bernie has gone even farther, of course, seeking to increase social security, provide free college education, raise the minimum wage to $15, propose massive infrastructure investment, and provide single payer health care for all as a universal right. I think it is safe to say that his campaign has forced Hillary Clinton to respond by moving in his direction regarding these matters.

When you go to the issues page of Hillary Clinton's campaign website, she has no specific topic devoted to her positions on improving the lives of the working class. You have to do some of digging to tease out what she says she will do to improve the economy for people outside her own class. For example, here's what her "Plan to Win the Global Competition for Advanced Manufacturing Jobs" states as its main goal regarding trade agreements:

Set a high bar for trade agreements, ensuring they create good American jobs, raise wages, and advance our national security.

She also says that, regarding trade and economic policies, she will pursue the following as President:

Make trade enforcement and leveling the playing field for American workers and businesses a critical presidential priority.

Crack down on currency manipulation and work with labor and business to take tough actions against unfair trade practices and the theft – physical and virtual – of America’s inventions, both by using the laws we have and seeking new authority where existing rules aren’t enough.

Boost resources to vigorously and consistently prosecute trade violations, for everything from investing in the latest technology to hiring trade analysts, subject-matter experts, and translators.

If you can tell me what that entails regarding specific proposals and actions she'll take as President regarding existing trade agreements, or those, such as the TPP, which may yet be approved by Congress before the next President assumes office, you're far more clairvoyant than I. Nonetheless, for your edification and mine, her are a list of many of the main components of her plans to revitalize our economy from links found at her campaign website:

Tax relief for communities hardest hit by the loss of manufacturing jobs.

Tax relief and support for research and innovation in America, particularly at smaller businesses and startups.

Appoint a "a new chief trade prosecutor reporting directly to the president, triple the number of trade enforcement officers and build new early-warning systems so we can intervene before trade violations cost American jobs."

Close loopholes and end tax write-offs for companies that ship jobs overseas.

End inversions - a tax avoidance scheme that lets US corporations park profits offshore to avoid the corporate earnings tax.

Get tough with China.

Invest in infrastructure.

Support working families through:

Strengthening unions and protecting worker bargaining power.

Raise the minimum wage and strengthen overtime rules.

Support equal pay, paid family leave, earned sick days, fair schedules, and quality affordable child care.

Help students by:

Encourage proven, high-quality training and apprenticeships – including a $1,500 tax credit for every apprentice hired through a bona fide apprenticeship program

Allow federal student aid to be used toward high-quality career and technical training programs with promising or proven records—including traditional career and technical education, and innovative, flexible online programs.

Promote "public-private partnership that helps smaller American manufacturers compete."

Provide tuition-free community college, and reduce student debt by allowing students to refinance their loans.

It sounds impressive, until you realize how many moving parts are involved, and that the only "bi-partisan support" for any of these goals will probably focus on the tax relief aspects of it. The Republicans in Congress will oppose everything else. And many of her statements I found are rather vague and lack specifics as to how her proposals will be funded. In short, assuming she does indeed tend to make the economy a priority, her goals seem to me no more achievable at present than those suggested by Sanders, and she seeks to do far less than he does. To make any headway, she's going to need a victory in the November election that brings in a wave of Democrats who will support her in Congress and make the case for her agenda.

So far, Clinton's campaign has not chosen to emphasize her economic plans and policy proposals very often. Instead, it has been quick to criticize Bernie's proposals and, of course, go negative by attacking his character and integrity - he's racist, he's sexist, he doesn't care about minorities, and of course, my favorite, that his supporters are all vile Bernie Bros who are spreading right wing talking points about her.

For the most part, she's chosen to promote herself - her experience, her judgment, her electability - far more often than she's chosen to make the case for her agenda; her vision for improving the lot of millions of ordinary Americans, many of them independents who are quite cynical regarding the real motivations of both parties, people who are desperately struggling to keep their financial heads above water.

So, yes, her website does provides links to lists of bullet points regarding her economic "plan" that, to be fair, are no more or less or detailed than one would expect from any candidate in the middle of a hard fought campaign for the Presidency. But at some point, she needs to go beyond attacking her rivals, Democratic and Republican alike. She needs to make the case to all those people who are struggling that she has a vision for an economic recovery that includes them at its core. In my view, her ability to convince those people that she can be and will be their champion will determine whether she can win the support of independents and Sanders supporters who are drawn to him not because of who he is or his charisma, but because of the power of his populist message.

If Clinton truly wants those votes, which I believe will be crucial to making gains for Democrats in Congress, she will need to do more than stick to the standard, and by now tired, Democratic message that voters must choose her because the Republican candidate is so much worse. She must inspire the same enthusiasm for her candidacy that Sanders did with his supporters, and that Trump, for so many ugly and despicable reasons, has inspired among his.

Whether she can do that will go a long way to determining how well she does in the general election. Her ability to help elect down ticket Democrats to the House and Senate requires a positive message that appeals to people who feel that they have been abandoned by both parties. Assuming she wins in November (and at this point one would have to rate her the favorite, if not yet a prohibitive one), her administration will ultimately be judged as successful or not depending on if she is seen as the President who restored our economy to one that it works for everyone, and not just the few at the top.

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Pricknick's picture

are either happy with the way things are, still believe that we can work with the other party or are just plain afraid and believe she will not make it worse.
Fear is the greatest driver of late in this country. Hillary joins the republicans in exploiting that fear.

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

Steven D's picture

I suggest. But I am making the case for what she should do, not what I expect her to do.

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"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott

Pricknick's picture

and pissing into the wind will get the same results.
Trickle on and down.

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Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.

Lookout's picture

Everything is going well for the 1%. The crowd in her country club set are happy with their success. Why rock the boat?

Come to think of it another war sure would help Boeing's bottom line (and the foundation needs some more donations cause we want Chelsea to get a raise...that $900,000 per year foundation salary is hard to get by on in NY).

Hartmann made the point the other day that the Rethugs support the 1% (Kochs and their like). The turd way dems support the top 10% professional class. No one has the back of the bottom 90% which is why both Trump and Bernie have had success.

So I think she'll do something...create more wars.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

As the neoliberal class war proceeds, the numbers are starting to add up. The white people dying are in their 30s to mid 50s - usually a very healthy age. The causes of excess mortality are suicide; liver failure; and drug over doses. These killers are strongly associated with poverty and despair. In CDC identified 30 counties in the south where the white women have a lower life expectancy than black women.

The USA has 5% of the world's population but consumes 80% of the world's opioids like Oxycontin.

Joblessness has dire psychological consequences and deals like NAFTA are killers. The deindustrialization of this country is showing up in health statistics as well as other markers like school attendance and achievement.

Will Clinton reverse the war that those capitalists who control the political economy are, and have been, waging? In my view it's very doubtful.

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

Suddenly find she'd rather spend more time with the family and get the FUCK out of the way of the people who really want to improve the United States and possibly save the planet.

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ewmorr's picture

according to a new report . I don't think there's much mystery around what is driving much of it. We've seen this kind of personal economic-driven despair before. Very sad... and preventable.

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"I'm a pessimist because of intelligence, but an optimist because of will" - Antonio Gramsci

I followed the employment graph on Calculated Risk during the so-called "recovery." It took until June 2014 to get back to the same number of jobs Americans had prior to Bush's Great Recession. Not only did it take an exasperatingly long time, but the "recovery" replaced a lot of middle class jobs with low-wage jobs.

The uptick at the 28-month mark represents temporary Census Bureau hiring to conduct the 2010 Census. The so-called Recovery Act prohibited the federal government from creating any jobs at all, and Washington-imposed austerity forced state and local governments to institute public-sector layoffs in the midst of the alleged "recovery."

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"We've done the impossible, and that makes us mighty."

Daenerys's picture

how much they gloated and patted themselves on the back for creating those temporary jobs. Barf.

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This shit is bananas.

edg's picture

You wrote that the mortality rate is declining. If life expectancy is falling, then the mortality rate is rising, not declining.

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Steven D's picture

Thanks (shakes head sheepishly)

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"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott

detroitmechworks's picture

by renters.

At least if you have a mortgage you're going to have something concrete at the end of it, but the increased involvement of corporations into the rental market means more and more people are spending money to merely LIVE that will never go to anything else.

We are in dire need of affordable housing and property in this country, IMHO.

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I do not pretend I know what I do not know.

Dragonkat's picture

Someone on another website accused me of White Privilege and being able to afford as I put it. "Let the system burn" as an unapologetic Bernie or buster.

My response to her on that one.

Want to know how my day of Privilege went?

United healthcare just announced they are dropping out of the ACA in 2017, so that means thanks to no single payer I have one choice now in NC, to see how much blue cross will Jack me for.

My checking account now has 10 bucks in it because my 99 forrestor needed with an oil change $650 in car repairs. If I hadn't just borrowed 100 bucks from a friend i wouldn't be able to pay the rest of my bills this month.

That 100 is the difference between real food or two weeks of ramen noodles for me and my fiancee.

Because my lovely 10 dollar an hour job, at 40 hours a week barely pays for jack shit. If I hadn't had a third paycheck this month, that wheel bearing would still be going unfixed because I couldn't afford it. And if I could I would be putting $27 In Bernie's pocket because he is the only person who gives a damn. I might do so at the end of next month when he is still going to be running against her majesty just because your white privilage crap annoys me that much.

So you tell me you two, how does keeping things as they are work for me? Status Quo, fuck your status quo, we need real change in this country and if you think Hillary is providing it with her more of the same BS then you are deluding yourselves.

My rant for the day on it. And you along with Bernie are spot on Steven.

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See, their morals, their code... it's a bad joke. Dropped at the first sign of trouble. They're only as good as the world allows them to be.

-The Joker-

thanatokephaloides's picture

Someone on another website accused me of White Privilege and being able to afford as I put it. "Let the system burn" as an unapologetic Bernie or buster.

As a general rule, anyone invoking "privilege" in this fashion is an injustice collector, a flavor of narcissist whose favorite game is "Victim Poker". These individuals want to draw you and others like us into that little trap of theirs. Don't fall for it!

Smile

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"US govt/military = bad. Russian govt/military = bad. Any politician wanting power = bad. Anyone wielding power = bad." --Shahryar

"All power corrupts absolutely!" -- thanatokephaloides

Ever since the Great Recession broke out, I have been the sole support for four adult family members. Among them, there are three and a half bachelors degrees, and one masters. The best employment they could attain across these subsequent years was two seasonal part-time jobs.

I have declared repeatedly that I will believe that the economy is improving when these adult dependants can find jobs which give them the means to support themselves. One part-time job dependant was just hired to a full-time job with benefits. The half degree will be very employable when he graduates, as he's studying computer network security and is already under the notice of industry professionals. It's now the other two who need real work.

So count me as among those who don't swallow the kool-aid. The economy is NOT booming, or else I would not be watching so many start-up businesses in my town going under mere months after they open. I wouldn't be watching large corporations like Boeing and Caterpillar taking out management mistakes on their work forces through layoffs. And I wouldn't be hearing about how another high school graduate is joining Uncle Scam's Club to make the world safe for corporate profits because there aren't any job opportunities.

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Vowing To Oppose Everything Trump Attempts.