About that Hillary ‘support’

It doesn’t really exist. At least not in states that can be expected to help elect a Democratic president.

It's occurred to most conscientious observers that the DNC’s carefully arranged primary schedule strongly favored a conservative candidate. It helped reinforce the illusion of HRC’s inevitability. But illusion is all that it is. It's masking the likelihood of a disaster should she win the nomination.

HRC’s “victories” in all those states that once belonged to the Confederacy mean absolutely nothing in terms of winning the White House. In fact, if we were to look only at states highly likely to deliver electoral votes for a Democratic candidate, Bernie would be winning the race by a nearly 2-to-1 margin.

None of this is meant to disparage Democratic voters in dark red states. I very much appreciate their efforts to fight the good fight. I’m sure their sensibilities are assaulted by conservatives on a daily basis. It has to be a difficult existence.

But, the fact of the matter is that those states are highly unlikely to support any Democrat in November. Of the states Hillary has won by a decisive margin, South Carolina, Alabama, Texas and Mississippi fell to the GOP in nine straight presidential elections. North Carolina went Republican in eight of the last nine. Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Louisiana and Arizona have all gone GOP in four or five straight elections.

In fact, of the states Hillary won decisively, only two have much chance of going blue this fall. Ohio went for the Democrat in four of the last six elections, while Virginia did the same in the last two (but went red for eight straight before that).

Bernie, on the other hand, has won decisively in Democratic strongholds like Minnesota (10 of last 10 for Dems); Wisconsin, Washington and Hawaii (seven straight for Dems); Vermont and Maine (six for six); and New Hampshire (five of last six). He also won big in Colorado, which went Dem in the last two elections.

Looking at states where there were decisive victories this spring, and using only electoral votes the Democrats can likely count on in the fall, Bernie would lead 51-31 (63% to 37%).

Let’s look at the five contests which were relatively close -- Iowa, Nevada, Massachusetts, Oklahoma and Michigan. First of all, you can disregard Oklahoma, as it’s gone GOP in 10 straight presidential elections. Hillary won Massachusetts by 1.4%, and it’s gone Dem in seven straight elections. She gets that one, making the electoral count 51-42 Bernie. She won Iowa by .3%, and it’s gone Dem in two of the last three elections (and six of the last 10), so we’ll give her that one. That makes it 51-48 Bernie. HRC won Nevada by five points, and it’s gone Dem four of the last six elections, so put that one in her column, and she takes the lead 54-51.

But then there’s Michigan, which Bernie won by 1.5%, and which has gone Dem in six straight elections. That puts him back on top, 67-54 (55% to 45%).

Look at the enthusiasm for Bernie in Democratic strongholds. If HRC gets the nomination, that will be gone in a heartbeat. If HRC gets the nomination, we’re looking at a disaster of epic proportions this fall, at a time when the world can’t afford it.

Seems to me that if you’re interested in winning the White House, you back the candidate who’s been most capable of winning states that can be counted on to provide electoral votes. There’s no question who that candidate is.

Bernie Sanders.

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pfiore8's picture

historically, which states vote blue and how they are voting in this primary... it's quite illuminating.

good that you noted it in an essay.

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“There are moments which are not calculable, and cannot be assessed in words; they live on in the solution of memory… ”
― Lawrence Durrell, "Justine"

lunachickie's picture

they're not doing a good job demonstrating it. In fact, it lays waste to their leadership ability.

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No idea where it was now, that front loading the primary with southern states was something members of the CBC (I'm just using this as short hand) wanted from the DNC, as it gave them & their constituents more influence in the nominating process.

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This is an excellent analysis - thanks for it.

The DLCers in charge think that they will vote for Clinton because "where else will they go"...maybe but probably not. After Obama gave the finger to the most committed progressives in the party, and then turned around and blamed them(us) for not showing up to vote for DINOs in the off years, we've seen the registered Democrats lose numbers while registered Independents have gained. Many who stayed in the party, like me, did so to vote in the primaries.

Others have said, and I agree, the Clinton wing of the Democratic Party - which includes Obama - don't care if they win in November as long as they can control the party apparatus.

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"The justness of individual land right is not justifiable to those to whom the land by right of first claim collectively belonged"

lunachickie's picture

and people stop signing up for it?

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Some have concluded that the Dems don't care if Hillary loses in November as long as they can stop Bernie from becoming President (which would run counter to the wishes of the 1 Percent). I'm not convinced of that yet, however I think "Hillary or bust" is a legit theory.

Donald Trump, to state the obvious, is a wild card. If he gets the Tea-GOP nomination, strange things could happen. A recent poll indicated Utah could go blue for the first time since the 1964 election.

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"We've done the impossible, and that makes us mighty."

consider myself a Democrat if the party goes for HRC this year. No more "lesser of two evils" for me. If the party refuses to adhere to its populist roots and nominates a candidate like Hillary, particularly at this juncture, I will no longer have anything to do with it.

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"The real power is in the hands of small groups of people and I don't think they have titles. -- Bob Dylan"

Ken in MN's picture

...to her claims of being a Progressive and fight like hell to wrest control of our Party back from the greedy clutches of the great malefactors of wealth...

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I want my two dollars!

lunachickie's picture

I truly don't believe enough people believe in "Parties" enough to fight that hard to actually save it. And when I say that, that goes for both parties.

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appreciate Ken's sentiment and enthusiasm. And until the last few months, the conventional wisdom has been that the only path to power is through having control of one of the two major parties. But I suspect we're seeing a paradigm shift. It's conceivable BOTH parties could fall apart as a result of this election.

Personally, I'm inclined to believe progressives may have more influence OUTSIDE the Democratic Party, at least as the Democratic Party currently exists. But I'm not trying to pretend that I'm a font of wisdom in this regard. Just my current take.

I proposed a few weeks ago that progressives form a voting bloc, and simply make clear they will refuse to support or vote for any candidate who doesn't embrace their (limited) agenda. Think Grover Norquist, but for good, rather than greed.

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"The real power is in the hands of small groups of people and I don't think they have titles. -- Bob Dylan"

moneysmith's picture

Thank you, this makes perfect sense. And it brought my anxiety level down considerably Wink

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Hell is empty and all the devils are here. William Shakespeare

ZimInSeattle's picture

Clinton has ever won the GE. Conversely, no nominee with as high a favorability rating as Bernie has ever lost a GE. The DNC/DLC/Third Way cabal would definitely prefer a Republican over Bernie. Hillary or bust is a stronger phenomenon than Bernie or bust by a long ways.

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"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." - JFK | "The more I see of the moneyed peoples, the more I understand the guillotine." - G. B. Shaw Bernie/Tulsi 2020

lunachickie's picture

that the Owner Class will fight for whoever can win. And if Hillary starts looking like she can't win at any point--and by God, that won't take long--our Overlords will pour everything they've got into the other side.

And if the candidate over there happens to be Kasich, stick Hillary with a fork. Because it will surely be a cold day in Hell before Sanders supporters stump for her, after the shit she's pulled and all the lies she's told, and you can greet that skeezy fucker as your New Overlord.

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They think we will just fall in line if hrc wins because of the lesser of evils bullshit.what they don't get is many of us that have been around a while are not going to play that fucking game anymore and most of the younger voters have no loyalty to either party so their not going to play at all!

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