So about those down ticket races

I was reading a fascinating post over on /r/SandersForPresident which was beginning to think on some of the same topics I'm thinking about. The question is win or lose, where does the movement go from here? There's some high level strategy in there but one of the most salient points was:

This post is not meant to be critical, and not trying to re-invent the wheel. We’ve had stickied threads promoting individual Berniecrats here, and on r/GrassrootsSelect, and that’s great. But these individual posts that come and go feel unmoored from the bigger electoral picture. How urgent is that race (where does it fit in the calendar)? What is the landscape of the race? How progressive is the district/state? How well-funded is their opposition?

As a person who sees and cares about these sort of "Berniecrat" notices, I agree completely that they not being effectively presented. I often have a zillion questions which all tend to stand in the way of me actually doling out some of my very limited dollars. What was truly useful, in my opinion, was the combination of two data sources:

Govtrack allows me to see who my congress men and women are. In my case, they are Suzan DelBene, Patty Murray, and Maria Cantwell... all worthless corp-dems. Where this got interesting for me was trying to answer the question, "So how much would it take to topple them?" Another site, maplight, provides fundraising information. Murray (Sen, WA-01) is running in 2016 and she has raised $817,336 in this election cycle. For me, a political neophyte, that number was eye-opening. That is barely pocket change among Bernie's base which can cough up 7 million in 24 hours and is routinely hitting +20,000,000 monthly.

I can also take a look at one of my earliest Berniecrats, John Fetterman. This was a lot harder to research since sites like MapLight only show data for incumbents. Eventually I found he belongs to PA Senate seat 01 and I found these sorts of fundraising tidbits:

Sestak leads the Democratic field. As of Dec. 31, he reported $2.6 million in his campaign account.
McGinty reported $1.2 million
Fetterman reported $131,000.
Vodvarka has not reported.
-- Altoona Mirror

So Patrick Toomey is one of the PA incumbents (Republican) backed by the Club for Growth. He has raised $1,519,830 this election cycle. Again, a sum that we can easily manage. But note Fetterman's fundraising total at only $131k.

PHILADELPHIA – John Fetterman is the rare candidate for U.S. Senate who belongs in dive bars like this one in north Philadelphia. But just because your candidacy is calibrated for hipsters – and there were a few dozen of them crammed into the charmingly dingy Billy Murphy’s Irish Saloon here last week – that doesn’t mean they’re going to treat you like a rock star, or even like Bernie Sanders, when you talk.

A few in the youthful crowd clapped when the Democrat Fetterman – who’s known as much for his brawny NFL stature as his unapologetically progressive politics – was introduced. More cheered after Fetterman, 46, declared that marijuana should be made legal.

But by the end of his five-minute speech, many had turned back to munching on their $5 hamburgers and chatting. Fetterman is supposed to be the embodiment of this year’s alleged anti-establishment wave, the mayor of Braddock, a small town near Pittsburgh, who’s trying to topple two better-known, better-funded candidates in Pennsylvania’s open-seat Democratic Senate primary.

But a few fans aside, the people here were not intrigued – certainly not as interested as the tens of thousands who have flocked to rallies for Sanders or Donald Trump. That could explain why, six weeks before the race’s April 26 primary, his campaign is lagging in the polls and starved for money.

For political outsiders in both parties running in House and Senate primaries this year, it’s a surprisingly common story. The success Sanders and Trump have had in the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries has yet to translate down the ballot.
No Year of the Outsider in Down-Ballot Races

So to me, what I've learned here is that the money part isn't the problem. But the coordination and focus part is. I'm going to be giving some thought to that and, with any luck, do a series of articles on it (that's right, a guy who is an avowed political neophyte is going to school you all on how to do politics LOL)

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B. Joe King's picture

And looking forward to your article series! It seems there are a number of seats in the House and Senate that are in solid Dem states that should be takeable from Corp-Dems. My own district (OR-3 represented by Earl Blumenauer) comes to mind. I'm astonished he is as widely supported in the Portland area as he is, especially considering his pro-business mindset. Once upon a time he was a part of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, but no longer. Suzanne Bonamici in neighboring OR-1 is part of the caucus, as is good ol Pete Defazio. Of the 4 Dem senators from OR and WA, I think Merkeley is the least objectionable. Never was a fan of Murray or Cantwell during my years living in WA, and not too big on Wyden in Oregon.
I've been going word of mouth about Blumenauer to friends and family that live in his district, seems to be working! With any luck Michael Meo from the PGP will have a good showing this year Blum 3 I do like the eyepatch he wears for his voter information picture.
On a separate note... Oregon's automatic voter registration seems to be working well, at least anecdotally. I know this girl that moved to Portland from out of state last year, she went to get her OR drivers license and was told she would be registered to vote and could opt out through the mail if she wanted. From talking to her, it sounds like she wouldn't have even bothered to register! Now she'll get a ballot in the mail and I'll check to see if she has sent it shortly before the election... I'll give her some prodding if she needs it Biggrin

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Gold is the wealth of kings; silver is the wealth of commoners; barter is the wealth of peasants; and debt is the wealth of slaves.

SnappleBC's picture

Honestly it's my first serious political diary but I'm worried about the "post-bernie" movement and seeing that we are pretty much utterly failing on the down-ballot support isn't a good sign. My wife asked me, "So what can you do about it?" and this is what came to me. This diary is more of a problem statement. I'm hoping to come up with some solutions.

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A lot of wanderers in the U.S. political desert recognize that all the duopoly has to offer is a choice of mirages. Come, let us trudge towards empty expanse of sand #1, littered with the bleached bones of Deaniacs and Hope and Changers.
-- lotlizard

Great insight. Look forward to your articles. You are correct about the power of the fundraising for the movement. Keeping it moving forward will have a major impact on the election this year and the following two or three.

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SnappleBC's picture

In the races I researched so far the total fundraising of the Republican candidate was minuscule compared to the demonstrated fundraising potential of the movement. I think it's a problem of focus more than anything else. I think we could cough up 1.5m without breaking stride and I think we WOULD do it. I think the stopper is we know so little about these candidates. Slowly in my head I'm forming this idea of writing a series of well researched articles. If I took a look at each candidate and weighted them according to how reliable a Berniecrat they were, how flippable the seat is, and how much money the opposition has raised and packaged that up all nice and neatly, then perhaps we could get some relatively small money bombs sent their way.... bombs that would be HUGE in the scales I've been looking at. I laughed with my wife and said, "It's kind of like hitting a state tack with a national sledgehammer."

I know that just like someone mentioned in that Reddit thread, what I see is a name float across my information feeds because some says something like "Tim Canova endorsed Bernie" and I think, "I should research that. But then I don't and the donation doesn't happen.

Anyone who's got any input on this idea including "bad idea" or "you should add X into your research" I'd love to hear from.

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A lot of wanderers in the U.S. political desert recognize that all the duopoly has to offer is a choice of mirages. Come, let us trudge towards empty expanse of sand #1, littered with the bleached bones of Deaniacs and Hope and Changers.
-- lotlizard

This ActBlue link lists the candidates for the House and Senate who have endorsed Sanders (see box upper right): https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/sandersdemocratsforushouse-us...

You can research them individually and donate to them individually by googling their name and ActBlue together. I'd like to put in a pitch for Angela Marx (Washington state), who posted about her campaign at this site. I've contributed to her and to Tim Canova, who's challenging the detested Debbie Wasserman Schultz for her seat in Florida. Zephyr Teachout (NY) and Lucy Flores (NV) are strong voices. I want to take a look at Victoria Steele (AZ) as well.

This piece discusses races in states that might flip the Senate: http://prospect.org/article/nine-battleground-states-could-flip-senate-a...

[N.B.: Alan Grayson, who's now running for the Senate, is one of the wealthiest members of the House. My view is that my donations go farther in other campaigns.]

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"It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society." --Jiddu Krishnamurti