The huge risks of confronting Iran
Submitted by gjohnsit on Thu, 02/02/2017 - 6:30pm
Being best bud's with right-wing Israel means Trump must play hard ball with Iran.
Flynn cites two justifications for bringing the US on war footing against Iran. Both are dubious. First, he blames Iran for a recent attack on a Saudi naval vessel carried out by Houthi forces in Yemen. According to Flynn, because the Houthis are backed by Iran – itself a specious claim – it is Iran that is actually responsible for the attack.
Even if it were true that the Houthis are Iranian proxies, this kind of guilt-by-association reasoning gets quite awkward when considering what some US-backed rebels in Syria have done with US-provided weapons and training. Like beheading young boys...
The second reason for putting Iran at the top of Flynn’s hit list: Over the weekend Iran tested a medium-range ballistic missile which Flynn claims violates the P5+1 negotiated and UN-backed Iran nuclear deal. UN Security Council Resolution 2231 “calls on” Iran to not undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, but this section has been interpreted as a request rather than a prohibition. There are no specific provisions in the nuclear deal that explicitly prevent Iran from testing a missile.
In fact, Iran has tested several ballistic missiles since the nuclear agreement was signed but this time the US reaction is far different.
Unlike Saddam's Iraq, Iran is not helpless and isolated.
What's more, the U.S. can't just stand back and throw punches from a distance.
Confronting Iran carries risks for the US, Exum warns. In particular, he highlights the vulnerability of US personnel in Iraq in a piece in The Atlantic.
“The US has about 5,000 troops in Iraq, mostly focused on countering the Islamic State,” Exum explains...
“Unfortunately,” Exum cautions, “I think that a lot of Americans still feel that you can start a war at low cost — that, you know, you can punch Iran and Iran’s not going to punch back.”
Trump seems to be aware of this fact.
Iran hasn't had so much influence in Baghdad since the Persian Empire.
In the eyes of most Iraqis, their country's best ally in the war against the Islamic State group is not the United States and the coalition air campaign against the militants. It's Iran, which is credited with stopping the extremists' march on Baghdad.
Shiite, non-Arab Iran has effectively taken charge of Iraq's defense against the Sunni radical group, meeting the Iraqi government's need for immediate help on the ground.
What's more, army casualties in Iraq's Mosul offensive are so steep that Baghdad may be unable to provide security in Iraq without Iran's help.
It isn't just Iraq. Iran exercises huge influence in Syria too.
Victory in Aleppo matters enormously for both sides, but when the dust finally settles in Aleppo, it counts for more in Iran. Securing Syria’s second city and industrial heart is much less to do with re-establishing state sovereignty than about asserting its own influence and agenda in the strategic heart of the region.
Aleppo is a crossroads in Iran’s project to build a land corridor to the Mediterranean coast. It is also likely to be a new centre of Tehran’s geopolitical projection, which has been on open display elsewhere in the conflict.
"Open display elsewhere" means ethnic cleansing by its proxies.
Interestingly, Iran is doubling-down with their defiance.
Following President Donald Trump’s ban on travelers from seven predominantly Muslim countries, the Iranian government announced it would stop using the U.S. dollar “as its currency of choice in its financial and foreign exchange reports,” the local Financial Tribune reported.
Iran governor Valiollah Seif’s central bank announced the decision in a television interview on January 29. The change will take effect on March 21, and it will impact all official financial and foreign exchange reports.
“Iran’s difficulties [in dealing] with the dollar,” Seif said, “were in place from the time of the primary sanctions and this trend is continuing,” but when it comes to other currencies, he added, “we face no limitations.”
Comments
How long before Bibi convinces Trump to attack Assad?
I have a feeling that the situation in the ME will slowly careen out of control given Trump's unpredictability, his advisers, his cabinet choices, and siding with Israeli right wingers. I was hoping he might actually follow up on some of his isolationist tendencies and just back off. The Israelis also want to take out Assad. Today Halley did a "Samantha Power" on the Russians at the UN accusing them of escalating the fighting in the Ukraine. But from the sources I read, it was apparent that Kiev is the once escalating which over time is very typical of them--with the western press going along with it as an evil Putin ploy.
@MrWebster
We wanted decent healthcare, a living wage and free college.
The Democrats gave us Biden and war instead.
No convincing needed.
I don't think Israel wants to take out Assad - at least not now
Keeping Muslims killing Muslims in internecine fighting that is mutually destructive gives Israel the catbird seat and Israel intends to remain in this seat. The US military and political actions in these Muslim countries in the last two decades speak to the truth of this and show they support that very same policy.
GEN. WESLEY CLARK: "Well, starting with Iraq, then Syria and Lebanon, then Libya, then Somalia and Sudan, and back to Iran. So when you look at Iran, you say, 'Is it a replay?' It’s not exactly a replay. But here’s the truth: that Iran, from the beginning, has seen that the presence of the United States in Iraq was a threat — a blessing, because we took out Saddam Hussein and the Baathists. They couldn’t handle them. We took care of it for them. But also a threat, because they knew that they were next on the hit list."
Besides financially compromised western backed Egypt and the GCC countries, there is no longer any Arab Muslim country that can project power outside its borders. The only country left is Persian Muslim Iran. Fortunately for Syria and Iran, Russia has begun to flex its might in the region to prevent their utter destruction.
The impetus for the destruction and balkanization of this region did not come from within. It was carefully and purposefully engineered and nurtured over several decades by outside powers, the greatest of which was the United States and its main ally in the region.
The entry of Russia as a new player in the game was not expected. Neither was its strength as a military power. Before the US can 'deal' with Iran, it now has to deal with Russia. This will not be an easy thing to do. Putin has remade Russia into a formidable opponent. I expect the US to attempt to continue to exacerbate the tensions in Ukraine, possibly with a false flag event in an attempt to keep Russia occupied in its back yard.
America has to be knocked off its 'exceptional' perch for the geopolitical health of the world. 10 to 14 million dead since WWII due to US interventionist policies needs to come to an end. The US has to learn to become an 'equal among equals'.
We live in interesting times.
@CB
Couldn't agree more, but would add in that this is required also for the global survival of life on the planet.
From the OP:
Sounds like the Mafia expanding, doesn't it? Not what America's most enlightened Founders planned at all - quite the opposite, in fact, and outright unconstitutional.
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
No one could have predicted.
What's funny, not really,
is how many are praying for the ultimate war so as to be lifted into their dogs loving arms.
I really wonder how long it's going to take for countries around the world to start isolating this country. Iran is smart to change their primary financial currency. The dollar could well be worth little in a short time if certain countries follow suit.
Thanks gjohn.
Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.
The demise of the US$ as a reserve currency would spell the
end of the American Empire which would drag the rest of the world down with it if done rapidly.
Iran's sudden drop of the US$ for oil sales is going to put it squarely in the cross hairs of American military might.
What is the common denominator of the following:
2000 Iran talked about switching to Euro
2000 Saddam switched to the Euro for oil sales
2006 Assad switched to the Euro for government business
2009 Qaddafi talked about switching to gold w/ parts of other African nations
Fuck with US monetary hegemony and you WILL pay, in blood and tears.
Maybe
Do you think they already haven't?
Regardless of the path in life I chose, I realize it's always forward, never straight.
Yup. That's why I said WILL pay. It's sure deal
Fortunately for the world, Russia and China are too powerful for the US to attack frontally. Historically, both of these nations were much less inclined to rule the world. Expansion under USSR was a reaction to foreign attacks (some historical) from Turkey, Austria, Hungary, France, Germany, England, USA, Japan, Ottoman Empire (to name a few).
Even now both of these countries are being encircled and squeezed by the US war machine.
@Pricknick
The US PTB's War Against The World will logically cause any countries having any leadership with the instinct of self-preservation to band together in self-defense against being invaded/attacked/economically captured/nuked one by one or several at a time - some of these delusional idiots apparently think they can leave North America to be vaporized in nuclear attacks against multiple countries and somehow themselves escape not only radiation but global dimming, perhaps On The Beach, in New Zealand. Others believe they can achieve immortality and somehow escape the hell they plan to create in Virtual Reality. At least as long as power supplies hold out...
I see no reason why the rest of us should let them go any further unopposed.
Hopefully the spread will continue of people protesting in whatever pacific manner they can, increasing boycotts and divestment, en masse - not supporting corporate abusers either tacitly or with purchase of any avoidable products or services. But it may yet come down to our own militaries having to come home to fight for their own people in their own home country against corporate mercenaries, corrupted civil forces and what currently passes for our own governments... I used to laugh at the right wing for such concerns and the irony lies heavy on my toes.
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
War with Iran?
Maybe somebody should ask General Van Riper what he thinks about the risks:
Luckily, that time it was only a war game.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
It sounds like a war with Iran is idiotic
but oil and war profits I guess.
Beware the bullshit factories.
@Timmethy2.0
Exactly. The attacked people and people in the American/Allied military will suffer the injuries, maiming and death and pay the fiscal costs of TPTB gaining even greater profits from 'armed-robbery' stolen petrochemical toxins destroying what remains of life on the planet. It's a win-win for Those Who Matter, right?
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
I'm certain Sun Tzu would be rolling in his grave if he knew
That was fourteen years ago.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Maybe the other way around.
How long until Trump says to Bibi go ahead and attack Assad I have other fish to fry...like my new wall. I think the IDF went at Syria recently in any case. I lose track in this war of all against all in the collapsing MENA district.
FWIW, terms like "ethnic cleansing" and
"extermination" are repugnant to me.
These are terms designed to make genocide sound like simply basic hygiene and the victims of genocide seem like an infestation of bugs or germs. They are heinous, hideous terms for slaughter of human beings on a massive scale for ugly reasons that should not be acceptable to any decent person or nation.
As far as Iran, thank you for great insights. In reality, if we are going to be true, true buddies with Israel, we must be against any nation that Israel perceives as a threat, which could be any nation at all, certainly any nation in the Middle East, including those that don't do their own fighting, but that fund fighters.
If Trump was really serious about "countries
..that take advantage of us", he'd start with Israel. I remember a time when lefties were saying things like at least Trump isn't as bad as Hillary on foreign policy, yeah how is that working out ?
Too early
Trump is not incline to invade Syria, unlike Hillary, so he's still a bit better on foreign policy...so far.
He's inclined to attack anyone that pisses him off at the time.
Trump has attacked ISIS, Taliban and al-Qaeda so far
no one else. Just like Obama.
@gjohnsit
Cleverly disguised as women and children and innocuous men, same old, same old. s/
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
The only reason Trump is not hawkish on Syria is because
Russia is there. He believes that working with Putin would be financially beneficial to both countries - which is true. Unfortunately there are a lot of neocons and Russophobes inside the beltway that also think Russia could be financially rewarding as Cold War enemy redux. Without an outright 'War
onof Terror', there is little profit for the ever rapacious MIC. Russia makes a worthy opponent for escalation of military might.Using your own currency is a dangerous thing.
That's what got Libya attacked by the US. Bibi the Butcher and the Saudis control what the US does in the ME.
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." - JFK | "The more I see of the moneyed peoples, the more I understand the guillotine." - G. B. Shaw Bernie/Tulsi 2020
Interesting take on this:
~snip~
More here: https://consortiumnews.com/2017/02/02/trump-veers-off-course-with-iran-threats/
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." - JFK | "The more I see of the moneyed peoples, the more I understand the guillotine." - G. B. Shaw Bernie/Tulsi 2020
Alastair Crooke is spot on here,
as he usually is. Trump seems to be setting mutually contradictory goals for his FP team. But he's such a blabbermouth and braggart that it's hard to take him at his word. How much of his shtick is bluff, and how much is actual threat? Attacking Iran would be an utter disaster - for all involved, including Trump himself. Could he really be that blindly stupid?
native
The combination of bullshit swagger and real intent
USS Cole back to Yemen
link
Are we at war in Yemen now?
link
john, it may have slipped your mind but...
@gjohnsit
Sometimes seems almost as though the PTB just likes to send military around the world, barging into other people's countries to kill people here and there - but then again, that's what terrorists do, isn't it?
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.
not a surprise
link
More chance of getting hit by lightening while in a car
Trump is the poster boy for The Peter Principal. He's so out of
his depths he couldn't even watch the events of his own failed military operation that even the Pentagon was carried out without adequate intelligence and backup. The scorn he's garnering the past few days has got to be making him crazy.
Reminds me of...
I'm tired of this back-slapping "Isn't humanity neat?" bullshit. We're a virus with shoes, okay? That's all we are. - Bill Hicks
Politics is the entertainment branch of industry. - Frank Zappa
Excellent article on this situation by Brandon Turbeville
Cartalucci is a must read and he's been pointing out the
Yes, Trump and his regime are not going to bring peace on earth, the stuff about non-intervention, no regime changes, no meddling, etc., was just bullshit lies.
This is very important
A war with Iran would be disastrous for the US any way you cut it. It would also be disastrous for Iran, but as you say Iran is better positioned to inflict serious damage on the US. Iraq was a big enough pain in the ass for the US as it was, and Iraq as you pointed out was weak and isolated after a decade of sanctions. The Iranians are a proud people. They will fight back hard if they are attacked. The only way to end this quickly would be to nuke the hell out Iran, which would make the United States an international pariah.
I don't much care what Trump's intentions are. I care about what he does. And what Trump has done so far is keep the imperial war machine turning. He has not broken with the past; at best, he is just aiming at different targets.
This foolish, needless, and destructive war with Iran must be opposed, like the rest of the terrible shit that Trump is trotting out -- but this perhaps most of all. It's bad enough that we fuck ourselves up, but it's far worse that we insist on fucking up other people too.
Not everyone backs down to
Not everyone backs down to obligingly empower bullies, something not often enough experienced by the US PTB.
If everyone stands up to bullies, they tend to melt, having been taught through productive experience that bullying doesn't work and may back-fire badly; otherwise, when allowed to bully successfully and to escape consequences, they may eventually destroy their victims, mentally, emotionally, physically, or in all ways.
In that sense, bullying is a learnt behaviour which must be discouraged - especially in those having the financial power to buy additional bullies to back them and keep themselves safely protected. I believe that the people of countries around the world are beginning to realize that such powers must be resisted now, before there's nothing left to salvage.
Psychopathy is not a political position, whether labeled 'conservatism', 'centrism' or 'left'.
A tin labeled 'coffee' may be a can of worms or pathology identified by a lack of empathy/willingness to harm others to achieve personal desires.