The Big Winner of Turkey's Coup? Putin
On the same day that Putin and Russia were being denounced in Philadelphia, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced plans to meet Vladimir Putin for talks in St. Petersburg.
Russia “isn’t just our close and friendly neighbor, but also a strategic partner,” Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek, who announced the Aug. 9 visit, said at talks in Moscow with his Russian counterpart Arkady Dvorkovich on Tuesday. “Today, we are here to normalize the situation and our relations as soon as possible and at an accelerated pace since they were disrupted on November 24,” he said, referring to the downing of a Russian warplane by Turkish fighter jets near the Syrian border...
The attempt to overthrow Erdogan has turbo-charged efforts to restore ties between Turkey and Russia that were already under way after the crisis over the warplane. The rapprochement may even lead to a political realignment in the region.
Based on three other recent announcements, this is more than just a friendly visit.
#1) Turkey accuses Ukraine of participating in military coup
Ukraine has actively assisted in preparing the military coup in Turkey.
This is according to the recent reports of Turkish media.
Numerous editions claim Ukraine has strongly supported the opposition movement of Fethullah Gulen who is said to stand behind the mutiny.
The accusation today is laughable, but the truth isn't the point. The point of the accusation was to symbolically show that Erdogan's Turkey, our NATO ally in the region, is now firmly on the side of Putin's Russia in regards to the Ukraine question.
This is a big deal.
#2)Turkey ready to resume pipeline project with Russia
Turkey’s economy minister says the country is ready to resume work on building a gas pipeline from Russia, a project that was suspended amid tensions between the two countries.
The project, called Turkish Stream, would bring gas from Russia to Turkey, from where it could be distributed to European Union countries. It was proposed by President Vladimir Putin in 2014 after a pipeline project to Bulgaria was ended amid EU countries’ opposition.
This third big announcement of today (along with the talks and the Ukraine accusation) is all about symbolism. It's about Turkey and Russia making a long-term economic agreement to work together. In this case, to build a pipeline around Ukraine.
#3) Turkey signals normalisation of Damascus relations
The suggestion made by the Turkish prime minister, Binali Yıldırım, on Wednesday, stunned the Syrian opposition leadership, which Ankara hosts, as well as regional leaders, who had allied with Turkey in their push to oust Assad over a long, unforgiving war.
“I am sure that we will return [our] ties with Syria to normal,” he said, straying far from an official script that has persistently called for immediate regime change. “We need it. We normalised our relations with Israel and Russia. I’m sure we will go back to normal relations with Syria as well.”
Unlike the other announcements, this came out two weeks ago. But the shift to undermine our anti-Assad strategy has been coming since early February.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan today issued an angry condemnation after US envoy to the ISIS War Brett McGurk visited the Syrian Kurdish city of Kobani, asking how he could trust the US while they associate with the “terrorists in Kobani.”
Erdogan went on to warn that the US is ultimately going to have to choose whether its partner is Turkey or the Syrian Kurds.
Erdogan wasn't bluffing, and now the chickens have come home to roost.
Rebel-held Allepo is on its last gasp. The 16th Division of the US-backed Free Syrian Army in Allepo is facing total collapse.
Once Allepo falls, so does the non-jihadist rebellion, and neocon dreams of overthrowing Assad short of an American invasion.
The Syrian Kurds are not anti-Assad rebels. They aren't even asking for independence.
Erdogan and Assad are dictators, while the Kurds are the relative good guys, but the consequences of our choice of allies in this fight are going to be steep.
Comments
Sounds like other nations are getting tired
of the US throwing its weight around and threatening them. Damn! I so wanted to live to 125. I don't think that is possible with radiation fallout.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.--Aristotle
If there is no struggle there is no progress.--Frederick Douglass
With Erdogan's shift towards authoritarianism.
Russia is a more natural fit these days in terms of governmental structures and values. If true this is significant.
As far as the Kurds go, however, this is bad news. The problem with these kind of alliances, however, is that authoritarian leaders tend to have difficulty forging lasting alliances.
A year ago
tensions were so high I thought for sure at the least the dardenelles would get shut down.
Solidarity forever
They had these deals done before the coup.
But waited until after Erdogan sprang his trap on the officers he knew would oppose the pivot away from Washington's preferred policies.
Not all Americans are hating the move, though.
Kerry has been meeting with Lavrov a lot recently, and they were in Moscow together the day before the coup, where they inked a deal on joint ISIS strikes, much to the chargrin of said coup officers.
Another interesting deal in the works involves Israel moving offshore Gaza gas through Turkey in exchange for opening up relief deliveries to the Palestinians.
Lots of horsetrading going on at the Bazaar right now.
BTW: Thanks for this. Makes a nice change.
The current working assumption appears to be that our Shroedinger's Cat system is still alive. But what if we all suspect it's not, and the real problem is we just can't bring ourselves to open the box?
Thanks gjohnsit,
A bit off topic, but on TOP there was a user inantalya that hasn't been around for a while. I assume for the same reason that most of us aren't there anymore, but can't be sure. A friend is currently traveling by bicycle across Turkey and any contacts would be appreciated...Does anyone know him?
Isn't the pipelines in both Syria and Ukraine
the reasons for the coups in those countries?
The oil companies wanted to start doing business in Ukraine and cut off Russia's control of the natural gas pipelines but the previous Ukraine president wouldn't allow foreign companies do business in the country.
I read an article over a year ago about the current president of Ukraine. He used to live in Virginia and promised Hillary that if he was president then he would allow foreign companies to do business there. And after nuland helped to overthrow the last president, foreign companies were allowed to do business. Remember Biden, McCain and other members of the government went to Ukraine and Biden's son was on the board of directors at one company.
This was also the reason why Assad had to go. Russia has had natural gas pipelines in Syria for decades and other countries and corporations wanted in on building them but Assad said no.
If Assad stays in power, look at what the cost was. Close to a million people killed or displaced, millions of our dollars spent and another country destroyed by our government and military.
Just imagine how that money could have helped the people in this country!
I don't know why we have to pay for the corporation's illegal wars so that they steal other country's resources.
Which AIPAC/MIC/pharma/bank bought politician are you going to vote for? Don’t be surprised when nothing changes.
Thought the Syrian conflict was based on a number . . .
of factors.
1. A drought had caused food shortages and Assad's response to the crisis exacerbated long standing tensions within the country (e.g. his father had massacred tens of thousands in Hama)
https://news.vice.com/article/the-drought-that-preceded-syrias-civil-war...
2. The U.S. invasion of Iraq had destablized the region, so that a power vacuum in a neighboring country created an opportunity for former Ba'athists and foreign fighters to create their state.
I'm sure that U.S. business interests always color our foreign policy on some level, but relations between the U.S. and Assad had been in a thaw post-Bush. Things went sour with the Arab spring and Assad's resort to violence as a way of dealing with what were initially political grievances. Turkey was initially also a major driving force as Erdogan seemed to be asserting his own regional influence in Egypt and Syria. In Egypt he lost out to the Arab Gulf states. In Syria, Russia and Iran have largely held on in the East.
What's the case for and against ...
Ukraine participating in or benefitting from a successful coup in Turkey? Wouldn't that have stopped the Russia-Turkey pipeline project and allowed the Ukraine pipeline to proceed.
EU and NATO can bring Turkey back into fold with better contract
Maybe after Erdogan puts the screws on the US/NATO by choking off the supply lines to the Al Queda and ISIS, the EU/NATO/US would be willing to offer Turkey huge concessions like EU membership. Haven't the Western Europeans denied EU entry since the 1960's? The EU basically paid off Erdogan to stop refugees in Turkey from entering Europe.
Whatever the question is
the answer is always Putin, he's the universal all-purpose bad guy.
"Obama promised transparency, but Assange is the one who brought it."