The beginning of the end for the ISIS caliphate

In Iraq, ISIS is about to be chased out of Anbar province.

Clashes between Iraqi government forces and the Islamic State group outside the city of Fallujah briefly subsided Tuesday, the second day of a large-scale military operation to drive militants out of their key stronghold west of Baghdad.

Fallujah has been under a brutal siege by the Baghdad government for months, and people have died of starvation in the city. The U.N. estimates that 50,000 civilians remain within Fallujah.
The big fear is that Fallujah could "become another Ramadi", where a town of 1 million is now an unlivable wasteland.
In the past few months, Iraqi forces have retaken the towns of Rutba and Hit in western Anbar, thus virtually eliminating ISIS in Anbar outside of Fallujah.
Fallujah fell to ISIS and other Sunni rebels in January 2014, long before Mosul.

Meanwhile in Syria, the Kurds have started preparations for the final assault on the ISIS capital of Raqqa.

A Kurdish-led force backed by U.S. airstrikes launched an offensive Tuesday seeking to capture territory around the northern Syrian city of Raqqa, in the first ground attack to directly challenge the Islamic State’s control of its self-proclaimed capital.
A few thousand Kurdish and Arab fighters — grouped under the umbrella of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) — began moving south through the desert from the existing front line about 30 miles north of Raqqa, according to a statement from the SDF and the U.S. military.

It's important to note that the Kurds have little interest in taking Raqqa themselves, and are merely trying to "clear the table" for a future assault by Sunni forces (that don't really exist yet).

“Certainly they’re not going to seize Raqqa with this offensive, but they are going to squeeze Raqqa directly,” he said. “This is putting direct pressure on Raqqa itself. The enemy will be forced to react.”

U.S. special forces are involved in both of these operations, but probably not on the front lines.

There is still a long ways to go, and none of the underlying political and economic problems responsible for the rise of ISIS have been addressed. In fact, most of the economic, political, and sectarian conditions are now much, much worse than in 2014, and no one has a realistic plan to deal with these issues, so a return to war after the defeat of ISIS is virtually assured.
But militarily-speaking ISIS is on the ropes, and that's what Americans care about.

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in this Forever War?

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I've seen lots of changes. What doesn't change is people. Same old hairless apes.

Ken in MN's picture

...the answer, by definition, can only be infinity times...

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I want my two dollars!

Steven D's picture

are all we've had since Bush invaded Afghanistan and then Iraq.

The cost in lives, money, refugees, harm to the environment, far exceeds any small PR win we get from these successes.

Tactical victories have led to a long term strategic defeat for our country on so many fronts at home and abroad.

Only the MIC and the Oil Barons are making out like bandits.

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"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott

Sandino's picture

was terrified of becoming the next Fallujah!

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MarilynW's picture

in Egypt. It is so ingrained in so many counties where the terrorist leaders have taken advantage of the famines, the poverty, the lack of a good future for the young in those countries from Chechnya and Kashmir to Syria and Yemen. The leaders (the architect of 9/11, Zawahiri is still alive) convince them to commit suicide which they call "martyrdom" because suicide is forbidden in Koran and promise them that they will go to Paradise afterwards. They rationalize the killing of innocent people including children as permissible because their victims are infidels. The Al Qaeda leaders' aim from the beginning was to entrap the USA in Afghanistan and Iraq and they were successful. ISIS promises more, it promises females as young as 12 and tells the fighters rape with infidels is permitted by the Koran. They may be losing some military battles but they will continue terrorist attacks against civilians. I see no end to ISIS.

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To thine own self be true.

Steven D's picture

but the same heads keep popping back up.

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"You can't just leave those who created the problem in charge of the solution."---Tyree Scott

MarilynW's picture

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). They hate the Saudi's considering them too moderate and too friendly with the USA.

Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)

Al Nusrah Front, which is al Qaeda's official branch in Syria

Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP)

Egyptian Islamic Jihad

Al Shabaab

Boko Haram

As a former captive sex slave of Boko Haram said, "Some pray, some do not pray, but they all kill."

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To thine own self be true.