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The Weekly Watch

Waiting for War

Open Thread image.jpg

I think we're in WWIII...the Western imperialists vs. BRICS+. One question is will the US and Israel resume the attacks on Iran? I suspect so. Will Russia finally attack NATO countries aiding Ukraine's drone bombing of their oil infrastructure? Lavrov suggests they might. What about the US true desire to stifle China? Can they really suppress this rising power? I think not. And perhaps the key question, will the global economy collapse with the on set of these hot wars? All this and more below the fold...

Screenshot 2026-05-02 at 09-14-32 waiting for War at DuckDuckGo.png

Surprisingly, the ceasefire with Iran survived another week. Trump sent a letter to congress stating that since there's a ceasefire the "war" is over. We can hope. However, he continues amassing troops and equipment in the region, and he's already conducted two sneak attacks. So as today's title suggest, we wait for (more) war.

Let's begin with what I found to be and excellent review of our situation...
Strategic SUICIDE: The Iran TRAP That Ends US Hegemony | Prof. Steven Starr

(57 min) War Update with Prof. Steven Starr: The empire of violence is running out of ammunition. The pivot to strategic division of labor with the Europeans taking over the Ukraine war is not going fast enough, and the new war drains an atrophied US military corruption system. The days of the almighty Uncle Sam are over. And it's only gonna get worse.
00:00:00 Introduction
00:00:35 US bases hit and missiles drained
00:04:42 Gaza Lebanon and civilian toll
00:06:19 Oil blockade and global fallout
00:14:02 Religion and war politics
00:18:48 Iran escalation and nuclear risk
00:25:27 Russia drone attacks and Europe risk
00:29:06 Drone warfare and US military weakness
00:39:39 Next moves and wider war danger

Alastair Crooke: Iran War Is Now a Global War for World Order

(46 min) Alastair Crooke discusses how the Iran war has become a war of all-or-nothing: Iran is not going back to crippling sanctions and endless military threats, and it needs to break up the US-led international economic architecture. Time is on the side of Iran, and the US is becoming desperate. Crooke is a former British diplomat and the Founder of Conflicts Forum based in Beirut. He was formerly an advisor on Middle East issues to Javier Solana, the EU Foreign Policy Chief.
Alastair Crooke: https://conflictsforum.substack.com/

Pepe Escobar: Iran Just DEFIED Trump, Air Defenses LIGHT UP Over Tehran as War Blows UP

(61 min) Pepe Escobar discusses signals of the war on Iran restarting as CENTCOM briefs Trump on the US's "final blow" and Iran's air defenses activate overnight. The renowned geopolitical analyst and journalist of the multipolar world breaks down the huge geopolitical shift precipitated by this war and why it's quickly becoming existential for the empire.

Pepe's articles:
Pepe Escobar: Imperial Dire Straits - After Hormuz, Malacca
The US naval blockade of Iranian ports – and, at a distance, of the Strait of Hormuz itself – is just the start of a “chain reaction”, as it’s been defined by close advisers to the new Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei.
The deciding circle in Tehran, examining the chessboard, is keenly aware of mounting shipping lanes/supply chains trouble ahead: they see how INDOPACOM is targeting Iranian tankers from the Indian Ocean all the way to Southeast Asia.
What they see in Tehran is mirrored by what they see in Beijing. Enter the Strait of Malacca: connecting the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea; only 2.8 km at its narrowest point (much narrower than Hormuz); handling 30% of global maritime trade; transiting as many as 25 million barrels of oil a day, before the current blockade.
Crucially, transit through Malacca supplies 80% of all of China’s oil imports; and it’s vital as well for Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and several ASEAN nations.

The UAE power play
So MbZ – the sole owner of the UAE – decided to quit OPEC and OPEC+.
Epstein Syndicate minions are billing it as a sophisticated New Energy Order play.
Not really.
At face value, the move is sound. The UAE spent a fortune boosting its production capacity to 5 million barrels of oil a day.
Yet under OPEC+ rules, their quota was much lower, hovering around 3.4 million barrels a day.
So they went all out for monetization. Now, in theory, they can sell as much as they want, and as much as demand from Asian customers such as China, Japan and India remains high.

This a good analysis from understanding the flux in energy sources to the geopolitical forces at play. Einar Tangen: U.S. Destroying World Order to Keep Hegemony

(50 min) Tangen discusses how the US is dismantling the international system in a desperate effort to restore its global hegemony.

Amb. Chas Freeman: Israel’s Grand Plan Collapsed in Record Time

(65 min) The first comment under the clip:
The aim is not to win wars but to have endless wars to launder money from the tax payer to the elites. Julian Assange

IRAN WAR TAG TEAM /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Col Doug Macgregor

(29 min) From the comments:
Two Colonels guided by integrity who should be overseeing the Pentagon.
War doesn’t stay on the battlefield—it spreads through the global economy.”

COL. Douglas Macgregor : Does Trump Have Any Restraints?

(32 min) My mother always said, "We shall never have peace so long as war is more profitable." The American war industry is leading us to World War three and just imagine the profits from a world war.

Larry Johnson & Col. Wilkerson: It’s Over: Iran Just Wiped Out Trump’s Blockade - War IMMINENT

(72 min) This has become one of my favorite conversatons of the week.

Max Blumenthal with George Galloway

(24 min) Trump will be enjoying his demise, because he is profiting from it
How is Barron Trump, with learning difficulties, suddenly worth $120m? asks The Grayzone's Max Blumenthal. He's cashing in, like others around his father raking in billions, from insider knowledge and trading.

Trump And His Family Are Enriching Themselves

Screenshot 2026-05-03 at 05-57-07 Trump And His Family Are Enriching Themselves – Moon of Alabama.png

Another good interview with Max
Max Blumenthal : US Industry LOVES War (22 min)
Max explains why he calls the new White House Ballroom "The Bowel Room". It is because in the bowels (basement) will be a citizen spying center. (@ 4:25 min)


The Trump Surveillance State

by Andrew P. Napolitano
...the right to privacy is facing its gravest challenges since pre-colonial days, in Congress and the Supreme Court. Congress will wrestle with Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which expires in just days, and the court will hear a claim that general warrants are still viable.

Seyed M. Marandi: U.S. Attack On Iran Could Be Imminent

(51 min) Seyed Mohammad Marandi argues that another U.S. strike on Iran is likely imminent. Marandi expects huge escalations on both sides when the war restarts.Marandi is a professor at Tehran University and a former advisor to Iran's Nuclear Negotiation Team. (Recorded May 1, 2026)

US could attack Iran again during talks, warns Pezeshkian
Pezeshkian said that the US naval blockade of his country's ports was effectively an "extension of military operations" by Washington, in spite of an ongoing ceasefire between the two sides.
...Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, meanwhile, also warned that war on Iran may resume "soon."
"It is possible that we will soon need to act again to ensure the objectives are achieved," Katz said

We'll begin to wrap with a walk and talk with Alex.
Aye matey, we're pirates alright...
Pirate world as Trump declares Iran war RESET. Meloni, Sanchez face US punishment as EU gets smashed
Trump just called America a nation of pirates — and he meant it. In this May 2nd update from Limassol, Cyprus, Alex Christoforou of The Duran breaks down how the Trump administration is resetting the 60-day Iran war powers clock with a surprise Congressional letter declaring hostilities over, even as Iran sends progressively softer peace proposals that Trump keeps rejecting. Meanwhile, Europe is getting hit from every angle: 5,000 US troops pulled from Germany, threats to remove forces from Italy and Spain, a devastating 25% auto tariff on EU vehicles, and a deepening energy crisis driven by the Hormuz blockade and continued Russia sanctions. A stunning Financial Times investigation reveals how Trump's sons quietly invested in a Kazakhstan tungsten mining venture that landed a $1.6 billion US government contract — a story that raises serious questions about conflict of interest at the highest levels of power. Is this the new normal for Western governance, or is the entire global order shifting into uncharted pirate territory?
00:00:00 - Introduction & Odessa Massacre Anniversary
00:02:02 - Trump Calls America "Pirates" in Florida Speech
00:03:47 - Trump Sends Letter to Congress: Iran War Over
00:04:34 - 60-Day War Powers Clock Reset Explained
00:05:38 - Iran's Peace Offer Rejected by Trump
00:07:00 - Iran Softens Deal Again — Wall Street Journal Report
00:08:43 - US Withdraws 5,000 Troops from Germany
00:11:05 - Troop Threats: Italy, Spain & Meloni's Punishment
00:12:46 - US Delays Weapons to Ukraine Due to Iran War
00:15:37 - Trump Kids & Kazakhstan Tungsten Mining Deal
00:23:49 - Trump's 25% Auto Tariff on EU Vehicles
00:26:38 - EU Energy Crisis: Hormuz, Russia Sanctions & LNG
00:28:20 - Hungary New PM Appoints Brother-in-Law as Justice Minister
00:30:00 - EU Threatens Slovakia's Fico with Orban Playbook
00:31:47 - Bulgaria Moves to Exit Ukraine Security Agreement
00:34:20 - Spirit Airlines Bankruptcy & Summer Travel Chaos
00:36:36 - Clown World: Trump Pool Memes & Merz vs. Anonymous Trolls

How about the domestic front?
MTG lives in nearby Rome, GA. She seems to have awoken from her MAGA daze.
She spoke at Ron Paul's event this week...

(35 min) She was quite popular in the room.

And now for something completely different...
People and their creativity. This couple has maximized their tiny home with moveable components.
Tall couple's Big small home: how 1 space gets infinite configurations

(23 min) In Scott and Susan Burbank's tiny house, almost everything moves — even the kitchen, just not the kitchen sink. Cabinets roll. Counters roll. The kitchen rolls from indoors to outdoors and back. The floors are paper, which is what lets it all slide. The result: a 600-square-foot home that reconfigures into whatever room they need.
The Burbanks were still living in their converted semi-truck — the "penthouse on wheels" we filmed years ago — when they bought a cheap manufactured home in a Tucson RV park and rebuilt it into what they call the XLT — Xtra Large Tinyhouse. Just over 600 square feet, built from a tiny house shell with an "Arizona room" added on the side. Bigger than most tiny homes, still a small footprint.
But the footprint does more. Because nothing is bolted down, the same room becomes a 600-square-foot walk-in pantry, then a 600-square-foot walk-in closet, then a sewing studio where Susan made their couches and the mattress for their 6'7" husband's custom Murphy bed. Dinner for two or twelve, depending on where the counters end up that night.
The Tucson RV park is part of the story. As Scott puts it: "This community is kind of special… it's one of the few places in Tucson where you can put a tiny house. In the city limits, you can't build a tiny house if it's on wheels.
But you can if it's an RV. So we technically qualify as an RV." The Burbanks — boat people from the Pacific Northwest — landed in the desert after four years on the road visiting Susan's 93-year-old mother. The desert grew on them.
They've since moved out of the rig and into this, which, as they put it, is not your grandma's tiny home.

The last few weeks I've focused on our endless wars because I find them the most important story. Of course there are other economic ramifications as well that are a consequence of endless spending on endless wars. Despite, or perhaps because of the coming hardships, people's creativity and ability to adapt will become more important. The times are indeed a'changin' and we will have to do so as well. As I often say, treasure every day, hold tight to your friends and neighbors, spend time in nature, and roll with the times.

Have a good Sunday. I look forward to your thoughts and stories below. The thread is open...

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QMS's picture

.
A pretty decent spring morning here. Sun and wind.
The hummers have returned! One of the interesting
arguments found this AM is how the MAGA base is
being torn into two factions: Zionist MAGA vs. Anti-MAGA.
The anti's are not very happy with the orange madman now.

Meanwhile, US sailors are starving on the aircraft carriers hiding
200 miles offshore "projecting power' out of the range of Iran
missiles. That's two refuels for the fighter jets. Not very effective.
And dangerously exposed to AD systems in the process.

Does trumpet understand how his actions are effecting the global
economy? Is rational thought even a possibility with the CIC? Why
doesn't congress exercise their responsibility to reign-in a crazy
administration?

Ah well, theater of the absurd abounds. Thanks for the WW LO!

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Zionism is a social disease

Lookout's picture

@QMS

It is a lovely cool morning here. Looks like a nice day.

Got a coconut cake in the oven to take to a gathering tonight. Bought some nice local strawberries and not so local blackberries plus my home made yogurt to go with it.

Had enough batter to make a small taste testing portion.

The world will continue to move through space regardless of what we do, and now we find ourselves with a third of 2026 gone by...water under the bridge. Time is fun when you're having flies.

Take care and have a good day!

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8 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

which I never do figuring if they have something to say they can write it down or at least provide transcripts. Then again I know that people are more into CT than ever and it's the one thing that is bipartisan.

Subscribers all in the hundreds of thousands and even views and comments way up there too. I think I only found one with five digits of views. I will say one thing, appearance wise, these guys look like right wing nobodys.

On the positive side silicon still sells. I've been using AI a lot more, in talking to lots of docs lately I notice they all use it too. AI is good at translating the technical terms of CAT scans and MRIs into normal language, and also it offers up none of the junk science of kale milk shakes and other fringe crazed supplements to prey on the gullible. Might be a good idea to ask some basic questions about the topics those expert talking heads expound on.

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Lookout's picture

@ban nock Garbage in, garbage out. That's how I see AI.

I use trusted sources I've followed for years and have found to be reliable. The term CT was first applied to those who questioned the (FBI, CIA, Mossad) murder of JFK.

Each to their own.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

@Lookout @Lookout half of Republicans think Trump won 2020, two thirds of Democrats think men can become women. Not sure which trusted sources they use.

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Lookout's picture

@ban nock

None the less, trusted sources are those that over the years have proven correct again and again. At least that's the way I see it.

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

TheOtherMaven's picture

@Lookout

Neither sex nor gender is a straightforward simple binary, no matter how much simple minds demand to have it so. Especially not "gender", which is a social construct and therefore highly variable.

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There is no justice. There can be no peace.

Lookout's picture

@TheOtherMaven

People do change genders. As to 2020, just the Russiagated Hunter laptop story is enough to make you realize the election was manipulated. None the less I doubt those poll numbers he quotes.

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3 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

TheOtherMaven's picture

@Lookout

I personally know (of) four who have, two MtF, two FtM. Whatever makes you (generic you, of course) feel you fit within your skin - it's none of my business.

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3 users have voted.

There is no justice. There can be no peace.

Lookout's picture

@TheOtherMaven

I believe people should be the person they want to be. What right do I have to say, No?

I know one transwoman. She seems happy. More power to her.

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3 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/trump-says-irans-latest-off...

Trump says Iran’s latest offer is ‘not acceptable to me’.

Today, 9:24 pm
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US President Donald Trump tells Kan’s Nathan Guttman that Iran’s latest proposal for resolving the regional conflict is “not acceptable.”

“It’s not acceptable to me. I’ve studied it, I’ve studied everything — it’s not acceptable,” Guttman quotes Trump as saying in a brief phone call, in a post on X.

In further comments reported by Kan in Hebrew (the original English is not provided), Trump says the campaign is going “great.”

He says that “the Iranians want to make a deal, but I’m not satisfied with what they’ve offered,” adding that “there are things I can’t agree to.”

On his repeated demands that Israel’s President Isaac Herzog give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a pardon in his criminal trial, Trump says: “He’s a wartime prime minister. Israel wouldn’t exist without me and Bibi, in that order. You need a prime minister who can focus on the war and not on nonsense.”

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Lookout's picture

@humphrey
I'm sorry to say. Ain't it funny how an ego or two can shape the whole world?

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

@Lookout

Things are happening this last 24 hours.

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

MSM seldom mentions the Ukie conflict, other than unsubstantiated claims that Putin is weak, Russians do not approve of him, and Ukie is destroying Russia's refineries. Trump gets to declare victory, and if things so south, it is Europe's fault. He doesn't have anyone to blame for a loss in Iran other than Israel, and that would be tantamount to burning Bibles.
We voted in a special school board election yesterday that had a proposal to support a property tax increase for a 50 Mill dollar loan to upgrade school campuses. We have a large but sparsely populated school district. We would be paying the interest on that loan for years before we even began paying the principal.
The proposal failed by over 60%, so they will have to figure something else to try. They had a $45 mil proposal in the recent election get voted down by a huge margin.
I hope your coconut cake was a hit, friend!
Thanks for the WW.

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

Lookout's picture

@on the cusp

... none the less the fantasy continues.

Europe's €90 billion loan to Ukraine is not what it appears — and Alex Christoforou and Alexander Mercouris of The Duran break down exactly why. Germany is set to funnel €20 billion directly to Kyiv in what looks less like a loan and more like a financial sleight of hand, all while German citizens endure austerity cuts at home. Meanwhile, Ukraine's long-promised EU membership is hitting a wall of resistance from existing member states — raising a devastating question: was that promise ever real? The Duran traces this deception all the way back to 2013, when the EU dangled membership as bait to rupture the Ukraine-Russia relationship, not to genuinely integrate Ukraine into Europe. As the front lines grind on and drone strikes hit Russian infrastructure, one question remains: has Ukraine been fighting a decade-long conflict for a future it was never actually going to receive?

00:00:00 Intro – Ukraine's €90B EU loan & what's really going on
00:00:53 Germany's €20B direct transfer: a confidence trick?
00:02:32 Germany implementing austerity while funding Zelensky
00:04:09 Ukraine demands EU membership – the promise revisited
00:05:20 Maidan 2013: it was always about EU entry, not NATO
00:07:19 EU pushback: member states don't want Ukraine in
00:08:57 The EU bait: Moldova, Serbia – the same playbook
00:12:14 Ukraine was duped – hook, line and sinker
00:21:02 Drone attacks on Russia: Tuapse refinery explained
00:30:08 Putin's indecision? Kremlin leadership under scrutiny

The cake is ok but not my best. One of these days I'll start using recipes.

Have a great day my friend!

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

soryang's picture

@on the cusp

...suggesting that there is substantial opposition to Putin for failing to take direct action against Europe.

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己所不欲,勿施于人。

@soryang Thanks, soryang.

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

Lookout's picture

@soryang

I don't find him reliable. Just my 2 cents...

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7 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

soryang's picture

@Lookout

I've also been skeptical of him. I'm just showing that he's a source of these accounts of what's going on inside Russia. I'm not an expert on domestic Russian political affairs. He postures as one. I know something about their history, the cold war, their navy etc., but my knowledge is dated, and I don't keep up with their domestic affairs.

Thanks for your comment, I'm interested in how others react to him.

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己所不欲,勿施于人。

@soryang I watch him to see what the CIA is trying to us brainwash with, so it always great to see him.
Know your enemy.

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

soryang's picture

@on the cusp

It could be something along these lines. I thought it could be the UK, Germany, or the US, or all the above. This is just some suspicion I have based on the UK historical hostility to Russia, Germany's 20th Century Ukraine strategy and cold war project in Ukraine, and the good cop, bad cop routine from the administration.

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己所不欲,勿施于人。

In reality it it for big oil and the coal industries.

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@humphrey manipulation. Again.

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

Lookout's picture

@humphrey

More oil, coal, and profits!

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

influence the stock market on Monday morning.

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@humphrey

The rest of the tweet:

Any American interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire.

The Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf would not be managed by Trump's delusional posts!

No one would believe Blame Game scenarios!

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QMS's picture

@humphrey @humphrey
.
The orange madman is so transparently deranged
he actually wants to sell us a 'reset' on the clock is a
pass to justify 'humanitarian' assistance for Iran?
Another mixed-up mess. Unbelievable!

JUST IN - CENTCOM confirms that "U.S. military support to Project Freedom will include guided-missile destroyers,
over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members."

Sure doesn't sound 'humanitarian' to me.

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6 users have voted.

Zionism is a social disease

Lookout's picture

@humphrey

We'll see what we see, but I bet it doesn't involve opening the strait.

What delusions...

Thanks for the X posts!

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8 users have voted.

“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

enhydra lutris's picture

@humphrey

destroyers have had ample time to fet to the straits by sno, so ...
be well and have a good one

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That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

@enhydra lutris

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Lookout's picture

...is worth remembering.
Ella Fitzgerald & Louis Armstrong - April In Paris

I still like the oldies. Hope you do as well.

See you around the site!

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“Until justice rolls down like water and righteousness like a mighty stream.”

@Lookout So beautiful, it brought back my memories of youth and a tear to my eyes.

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"We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." ---- William Casey, CIA Director, 1981

to be sarcastic.

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5 users have voted.

@humphrey May’ve been a Humphrey tweet I saw recently…a cartoon shows Trump sitting at a card table with a menacing look, sitting across from the Iran guy. Trump yells, “I have all the cards.” Iran guy says “No, I have a strait.”

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Anya