Dr. John Campbell's March 5 COVID-19 update.

Watch this before reading further please.

Two strains are announced in this video: L-type and the originally-isolated S-type. At first, according to Dr. Campbell, the L-strain was more prevalent. And the L-type is said to more infectious. But in China, the L-type is now the lesser cause of new cases than the S-type. If the S-type is less infectious, this makes no sense. The more infectious agent will be the most prevalent--by definition. Repeat: the more infectious strain should be the dominant cause of new case ascertainment.

But it isn't. Let's consider "infectivity" from another viewpoint of gauging infectivity. Consider the case of passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess cruise ship which was quarantined for 14 days at a Japanese port.

The coronavirus quarantine that has kept some 3,700 people aboard the cruise ship is set to end on Feb. 19. However, for "close contacts" of infected passengers, the quarantine will be extended 14 days from the last contact with a confirmed case, according to the WHO.

An additional 41 cases were confirmed on board early Friday, bringing the total among passengers and crew to 61. Those samples were part of the initial screening — meaning those confirmations didn't require a new 14-day quarantine to begin.

Then on Saturday, officials announced they had confirmed three more cases, for a total of 64.

The date of this article is Feb. 7, 2020. The quarantine ended Feb. 19, 2020.

As of Feb. 17, there were only 454 confirmed cases--after isolation, i.e., quarantine. According to the video below, the Japanese testing of Diamond Princess passengers won't be counted and announced until Feb. 19. So expect the number of affected to double--at worst case estimate. That would raise the afflicted to 908.

908 divided by 3700 means infectivity was 24%. If COVID-19 behaved like influenza, I would expect more than 30% infection incidence. This is a guess. This past flu season saw 24M cases.

The case to population ratio is therefore 24M divided by 330M. That's only 7% for this years non-COVID-19 influenza. And, as the graphic from Dr. Campbell indicates, influenza cannot be contained. Yet, in some areas the disease is contained. On the Diamond Princess a perfect test laboratory of infectivity and lethality is presented. Many passengers on cruises, and presumably this one too, are elderly, i.e., 65 or older. A 3.6% death rate, as is postulated by WHO Dr. would mean that 3700 X 3.6% = 133.2 deaths. This exceeds the number of Diamond Princess-associated COVID-19 induced deaths.

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJyoH5GY70M]

As you can see, there is a great deal of hyperbole, contradiction, and most of all, ignorance of the true state of affairs.

My belief as stated in yesterday's March 4 update is that community transmission is occurring. It is occurring when quarantine is only limited to voluntary self-quarantine.