Delegate deficit down to 298. Bernie leads Hillary 46-41 in Reuters national poll of Dem/Ind.

Submitted by subir on Thu, 03/24/2016 - 12:24am

Reuters national tracking poll of Democrats and Independents has Bernie leading Hillary by 5 points today. This is big poll, with a five day tracking average. Most respondents complete the survey online, but it is not an “online poll”.

Also, some good news from past contests. The Green Papers is showing that Bernie picked up 1 more delegate than initially reported in FL (73), TX (75) and GA (29) (compared to 538). AP’s tracker is not updated with yesterday’s results but agrees on TX and GA, they seem to have completely incorrect data for FL.

Here are the delegate leads going into last night and today, compared with delegates available:

Lead Available Lead as percent
March 21 322 2033 15.84%
March 23 298 1889 15.78%

So with an assist from the re-allocation of delegates in prior races, Bernie has improved the ground he needs to make up among the remaining delegates.

Last night and with Dems Abroad, Bernie picked up 83 delegates for a net gain of 21. That was off my “target”, but ahead of the 538 estimates for a tied race. So we caught up a bit, but need to do more.

STATE DEL TYPE 538 TARGET SUBIR TARGET

ACTUAL

DEL

 ACTUAL VOTES VOTES NEEDED TURNOUT ‘O8
AZ 75 Closed Primary 41 46 29 163,366 279,456 455,635
ID 23 Open Caucus 14 16 18 18,638 14,764 21,224
UT 33 Open Caucus 19 21 27 52,183 83,620 131,403
Abroad 13 Open Caucus 6.5 7 9 23,779 12,441 23,105
Total 144 80.5 90 83 257,966 390,281 631,367

All said and done, yesterday was a good day for Bernie. But it wasn’t great. Please get back to phone-banking so we can shrink that delegate deficit further!

Tags: 
#primary
#bernie
#2016 Election #BernieSanders
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Submitted by janis b on Thu, 03/24/2016 - 12:24am
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I'm really happy to see you posting here. Your work is excellent and deeply appreciated.

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Submitted by subir on Thu, 03/24/2016 - 12:28am

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@subirgrewal

Submitted by SnappleBC on Thu, 03/24/2016 - 1:04am
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A lot of wanderers in the U.S. political desert recognize that all the duopoly has to offer is a choice of mirages. Come, let us trudge towards empty expanse of sand #1, littered with the bleached bones of Deaniacs and Hope and Changers.
-- lotlizard

Submitted by dakrle on Thu, 03/24/2016 - 6:45am

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Submitted by Mark from Queens on Thu, 03/24/2016 - 12:51am
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You're doing fantastic work. Thanks for bringing it here too.

Hope you'll continue to hold the torch there too; I intend to be back and forth for a little while at least. I believe we should still pushback there as much as we feel we can endure, because it does start to feel like a chore sometimes, always feeling compelled to correct history or debunk all the Neoliberal propaganda lies (for me anyway).

Much better vibe here, you'll find.

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THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED
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Submitted by mawnjilla on Thu, 03/24/2016 - 12:55am
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I always liked your stuff on DK, I'm glad I can enjoy it here now.

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bern baby bern disco inberno

Submitted by Raggedy Ann on Thu, 03/24/2016 - 4:54am
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and pushing back, over there. It's great to see you here. Please post your essays here, too. Your voice is important. Welcome!

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"The “jumpers” reminded us that one day we will all face only one choice and that is how we will die, not how we will live." Chris Hedges on 9/11

Submitted by gulfgal98 on Thu, 03/24/2016 - 5:30am
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I am so glad to see you posting here. Your essays are so well researched and written. Echoing what other here have said, you do great work! Good

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Submitted by Cassiodorus on Thu, 03/24/2016 - 6:02am
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Lay the real thing on me!

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Submitted by subir on Thu, 03/24/2016 - 6:13am

Thanks all. Greenpapers just reported that 2 delegates were reallocated in AZ to Bernie which means it's 44-31 there now. That brings the lead down to 296.
Keep working on GOTV!!

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@subirgrewal

Submitted by subir on Thu, 03/24/2016 - 6:17am

Argh, too early for math. It's 1228-934. Lead is 294...

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Submitted by dkmich on Thu, 03/24/2016 - 6:30am

Glad you joined our group. I hope he finishes strong and the superdelegates come over, or he makes a run as Third Party. I think he'd cream her and Trump.

So nice to see you.

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Submitted by geebeebee on Thu, 03/24/2016 - 8:12am

Excellent work as always. Glad you are here!

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Submitted by CroneWit on Thu, 03/24/2016 - 8:57am

Your work is excellent!

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Submitted by RantingRooster on Thu, 03/24/2016 - 3:53pm
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I'm glad you here and look forward to more essays from you! Great work!

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C99, my refuge from an insane world. #ForceTheVote

Submitted by orlbucfan on Thu, 03/24/2016 - 4:22pm
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Inner and Outer Space: the Final Frontiers.